Lechia Zielona Góra 2–0 Carina Gubin

Lechia Zielona Góra

FT

2 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Carina Gubin

4/5/2025

III Liga - Group 3 · Group 3 - 24Stadion MOSiR

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 34+ matches

Lechia Zielona Góra47%

×Draw25%

Carina Gubin28%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Lechia Zielona GóraExpected goals in this matchCarina Gubin

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.63

1.20

Lechia Zielona Góra

1.63

Carina Gubin

1.20

Lechia Zielona Góra creates 36% more chances

Season form · 34 home / 35 away

1.91

creates per match

1.74

0.65

allows per match

1.34

creates per match

Lechia Zielona Góra

1.91

Carina Gubin

1.74

allows per match

Lechia Zielona Góra

0.65

Carina Gubin

1.34

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Lechia Zielona Góra+0.00on par

Carina Gubin+0.00on par

Total goals

Over54
Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes56
No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Lechia Zielona Góra ↓

Carina Gubin →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–17%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–112%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

77%23%2.5

54%46%3.5

31%69%4.5

16%84%

Double chance

Lechia Zielona Góra or draw

72%

Lechia Zielona Góra or Carina Gubin

75%

Draw or Carina Gubin

53%

Winning margin

Lechia Zielona Góra wins by 2+

25%

Carina Gubin wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Lechia Zielona Góra 1+ goals

80%

Lechia Zielona Góra 2+ goals

48%

Lechia Zielona Góra 3+ goals

22%

Carina Gubin 1+ goals

70%

Carina Gubin 2+ goals

34%

Carina Gubin 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Lechia Zielona Góra (draw refunded)

63%

Carina Gubin (draw refunded)

37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

45%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Lechia Zielona Góra at home — creates 1.91, concedes 0.65 · 34 matches

Carina Gubin away — creates 1.74, concedes 1.34 · 35 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Lechia Zielona Góra attack 1.91 + Carina Gubin defence 1.34 → ÷2 → 1.63

Carina Gubin attack 1.74 + Lechia Zielona Góra defence 0.65 → ÷2 → 1.20

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Lechia Zielona Góra scores more

47%

level

25%

Carina Gubin scores more

28%

Lechia Zielona Góra at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Lechia Zielona Góra will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff