Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Lechia Gdansk vs Warta Poznań — I Liga 2026

Lechia Gdansk
Lechia Gdansk
Preview
18:30
Warta Poznań
Warta Poznań
7/31/2026I LigaI Liga · Round 2Polsat Plus Arena
Big match
61%
Lechia Gdansk
model favours
61%23%16%

Lechia Gdansk score first in only 9% of matches

brightest fact of this match

1–0
likely score
54%
under 2.5 goals
44%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 18+ matches

Lechia Gdansk61%
×Draw23%
Warta Poznań16%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Lechia Gdansk
1.76
Warta Poznań
0.77

Lechia Gdansk creates 129% more chances

Season form · 18 home / 48 away

creates per match

Lechia Gdansk
2.06
Warta Poznań
0.92

allows per match

Lechia Gdansk
0.61
Warta Poznań
1.46

finishing

Lechia Gdansk+0.00on par
Warta Poznań+0.00on par

Total goals

Under: 54Over: 4654%Under
  • Under54
  • Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No: 56Yes: 4456%No
  • No56
  • Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Lechia Gdansk ↓

Warta Poznań →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–16%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–111%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–16%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
46%54%3.5
25%75%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Lechia Gdansk or draw
84%
Lechia Gdansk or Warta Poznań
77%
Draw or Warta Poznań
39%

Winning margin

Lechia Gdansk wins by 2+
35%
Warta Poznań wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Lechia Gdansk 1+ goals
83%
Lechia Gdansk 2+ goals
52%
Lechia Gdansk 3+ goals
26%
Warta Poznań 1+ goals
54%
Warta Poznań 2+ goals
18%
Warta Poznań 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Lechia Gdansk (draw refunded)
79%
Warta Poznań (draw refunded)
21%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
34%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Lechia Gdansk at home — creates 2.06, concedes 0.61 · 18 matches

Warta Poznań away — creates 0.92, concedes 1.46 · 48 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Lechia Gdansk attack 2.06 + Warta Poznań defence 1.46 → ÷2 → 1.76

Warta Poznań attack 0.92 + Lechia Gdansk defence 0.61 → ÷2 → 0.77

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 61%?"

Lechia Gdansk scores more
61%
level
23%
Warta Poznań scores more
16%

Lechia Gdansk at 61% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 61% does not mean "Lechia Gdansk will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • 73% of Lechia Gdansk’s matches go over 2.5 goals
  • Their last 6 meetings averaged just 1.5 goals

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Form
Gdansk
LDLLL
Poznań
LLLL

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Lechia Gdansk vs Warta Poznań — Match Preview

Lechia Gdansk face Warta Poznań on July 31, 2026 in this I Liga fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

Lechia Gdansk host Warta Poznań at Polsat Plus Arena.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.