Lechia Gdansk vs Lech Poznan — Ekstraklasa 2026
Match Prediction
Statistical Prediction
Based on xG from last 28+ matches
Lechia Gdansk35%
Lech Poznan41%✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.
Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct
Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Expected goals in this match
What is xG?
Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.
The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.
Both teams create about equally
Season form · 28 home / 33 away
creates per match
allows per match
finishing
Total goals
- Over58
- Under42
3+ goals likely
Both teams score
- Yes61
- No39
Both teams likely to score
Score probability
Probability of each scoreline, %
Lechia Gdansk ↓
Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines
More markets
Total goals
Double chance
Winning margin
Team goals
Draw no bet
Combos
Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.
How is this calculated?
Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.
Recent form of each side
Lechia Gdansk at home — creates 1.63, concedes 1.64 · 28 matches
Lech Poznan away — creates 1.53, concedes 1.27 · 33 matches
⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.
Expected goals for this match
Lechia Gdansk attack 1.63 + Lech Poznan defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 1.45
Lech Poznan attack 1.53 + Lechia Gdansk defence 1.64 → ÷2 → 1.58
Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.
Chance of every scoreline
From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.
The answer to "why 41%?"
Lech Poznan at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.
What the model can't see
It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:
- injuries & suspensions
- the matchday lineup
- motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
- weather & pitch condition
- in-game coaching decisions
So 41% does not mean "Lech Poznan will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."
Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.
Player of the match
Match Events
Lechia Gdansk substitutes
Lech Poznan substitutes
Head to Head
5 previous meetings
Radomiak Radom
Legia Warszawa
Jagiellonia
Gornik Zabrze
Korona Kielce
Piast Gliwice
GKS Katowice
Motor Lublin
Slask Wroclaw
Wisla Plock
Wisla KrakowLech Poznan
Zaglebie Lubin
Cracovia Krakow
Widzew Łódź
Raków Częstochowa
Wieczysta Kraków
Pogon SzczecinIf points are equal: 1. Goal difference 2. Goals scored 3. Head-to-head
P = Played · W = Won · D = Drawn · L = Lost · GF = Goals for · GA = Goals against · GD = Goal difference · Pts = Points
Possession
Shots
Pass accuracy
Statistics
Lechia Gdansk host Lech Poznan on Saturday, 26 July 2025 at 18:15. The match is part of the Ekstraklasa 2026/2027 season.
Ekstraklasa: Lechia Gdansk 3–4 Lech Poznan
Lech Poznan beat Lechia Gdansk 4-3 in Ekstraklasa on July 26, 2025.
Goals: T. Bobcek (22', 30', 87'), G. Thordarson (48'), F. Szymczak (55'), M. Skrzypczak (64'), M. Ishak (70').
Lech Poznan controlled possession (60%) and registered 21 shots to 16.
The match was played at Polsat Plus Arena in Gdansk.