Lech Poznan 3–1 Lechia Gdansk: Result & Stats

Lech Poznan

FT

3 – 1

HT: 3 – 0

Lechia Gdansk

M. Ishak 40', 3'

D. Hotić 35'

K. Wendt 90+3'

8/3/2024

Ekstraklasa · Round 3Enea Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 22+ matches

Lech Poznan52%

×Draw22%

Lechia Gdansk26%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Lech PoznanExpected goals in this matchLechia Gdansk

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.95

1.34

Lech Poznan

1.95

Lechia Gdansk

1.34

Lech Poznan creates 46% more chances

Season form · 34 home / 22 away

2.04

creates per match

1.42

1.26

allows per match

1.86

creates per match

Lech Poznan

2.04

Lechia Gdansk

1.42

allows per match

Lech Poznan

1.26

Lechia Gdansk

1.86

+0.40scores more than expected

finishing

+0.03on par

finishing

Lech Poznan+0.40scores more

Lechia Gdansk+0.03on par

Total goals

Over64
Under36

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes63
No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Lech Poznan ↓

Lechia Gdansk →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–15%

0–23%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–07%

1–110%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–110%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–16%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

84%16%2.5

64%36%3.5

41%59%4.5

23%77%

Double chance

Lech Poznan or draw

74%

Lech Poznan or Lechia Gdansk

78%

Draw or Lechia Gdansk

48%

Winning margin

Lech Poznan wins by 2+

30%

Lechia Gdansk wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Lech Poznan 1+ goals

86%

Lech Poznan 2+ goals

58%

Lech Poznan 3+ goals

31%

Lechia Gdansk 1+ goals

74%

Lechia Gdansk 2+ goals

39%

Lechia Gdansk 3+ goals

15%

Draw no bet

Lech Poznan (draw refunded)

66%

Lechia Gdansk (draw refunded)

34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

53%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Lech Poznan at home — creates 2.04, concedes 1.26 · 34 matches

Lechia Gdansk away — creates 1.42, concedes 1.86 · 22 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Lech Poznan attack 2.04 + Lechia Gdansk defence 1.86 → ÷2 → 1.95

Lechia Gdansk attack 1.42 + Lech Poznan defence 1.26 → ÷2 → 1.34

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Lech Poznan scores more

52%

level

22%

Lechia Gdansk scores more

26%

Lech Poznan at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Lech Poznan will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

21

D. Hotić

Lech Poznan · M

8.3

Match Events

3'

M. Ishak↳ D. Hotić

35'

D. Hotić↳ A. Ba Loua

40'

M. Ishak↳ Afonso Sousa

46'

Conrado← M. Kałahur

46'

K. Wendt← T. Neugebauer

53'

Andrei Chindriş

60'

D. Håkans← D. Hotić

60'

F. Szymczak← M. Ishak

64'

Daniel Håkans

73'

Ivan Zhelizko

73'

B. Fiabema← A. Ba Loua

74'

A. Gholizadeh← Afonso Sousa

74'

S. Buletsa← R. Kapič

76'

B. Viunnyk← T. Bobček

76'

K. Sezonienko← M. Khlan

90'

W. Mońka← Joel Pereira

90+3'

K. Wendt

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

LechLechia

Overview

57%Possession43%

19Total Shots10

9Corners3

10Fouls11

Shots

19Total Shots10

6On Target3

4Off Target4

9Blocked3

10Inside Box5

9Outside Box5

Passing

57%Possession43%

535Total Passes397

467Accurate Passes317

87%Pass Accuracy80%

Goalkeeping

2Saves3

Discipline

10Fouls11

1Yellow Cards2

2Offsides0