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Lech Poznan vs Lechia Gdansk — Friendlies Clubs 2026

Lech Poznan
Lech Poznan
CANC
11:00
Lechia Gdansk
Lechia Gdansk
6/29/2024Friendlies ClubsFriendlies Clubs · Club Friendlies 5TBC

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Lech Poznan42%
×Draw24%
Lechia Gdansk33%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Lech Poznan
1.59
Lechia Gdansk
1.39

Lech Poznan creates 14% more chances

Season form · 12 home / 5 away

creates per match

Lech Poznan
1.58
Lechia Gdansk
1.60

allows per match

Lech Poznan
1.17
Lechia Gdansk
1.60

finishing

Lech Poznan+0.00on par
Lechia Gdansk+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Over
  • Over57
  • Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

60%Yes
  • Yes60
  • No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Lech Poznan ↓

Lechia Gdansk →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–17%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–111%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
57%43%3.5
35%65%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

Lech Poznan or draw
67%
Lech Poznan or Lechia Gdansk
76%
Draw or Lechia Gdansk
58%

Winning margin

Lech Poznan wins by 2+
21%
Lechia Gdansk wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Lech Poznan 1+ goals
80%
Lech Poznan 2+ goals
47%
Lech Poznan 3+ goals
21%
Lechia Gdansk 1+ goals
75%
Lechia Gdansk 2+ goals
40%
Lechia Gdansk 3+ goals
16%

Draw no bet

Lech Poznan (draw refunded)
56%
Lechia Gdansk (draw refunded)
44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
49%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Lech Poznan at home — creates 1.58, concedes 1.17 · 12 matches

Lechia Gdansk away — creates 1.60, concedes 1.60 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Lech Poznan attack 1.58 + Lechia Gdansk defence 1.60 → ÷2 → 1.59

Lechia Gdansk attack 1.60 + Lech Poznan defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 1.39

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Lech Poznan scores more
42%
level
24%
Lechia Gdansk scores more
33%

Lech Poznan at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Lech Poznan will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Lech Poznan host Lechia Gdansk

June 29, 2024: Lech Poznan take on Lechia Gdansk in Friendlies Clubs. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Lech Poznan host Lechia Gdansk at TBC.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.