Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Lech Poznan vs Lechia Gdansk — Ekstraklasa 2026

Lech Poznan
Lech Poznan
FT
2 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Lechia Gdansk
Lechia Gdansk
N. Kvekveskiri 63'
M. Ishak 17'
8/22/2021EkstraklasaEkstraklasa · Round 5INEA stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 21+ matches

Lech Poznan50%
×Draw22%
Lechia Gdansk27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Lech Poznan
1.93
Lechia Gdansk
1.37

Lech Poznan creates 41% more chances

Season form · 34 home / 21 away

creates per match

Lech Poznan
2.04
Lechia Gdansk
1.48

allows per match

Lech Poznan
1.26
Lechia Gdansk
1.81

finishing

Lech Poznan+0.40scores more
Lechia Gdansk+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Over
  • Over64
  • Under36

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

64%Yes
  • Yes64
  • No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Lech Poznan ↓

Lechia Gdansk →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–15%
0–23%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–110%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
84%16%2.5
64%36%3.5
42%58%4.5
23%77%

Double chance

Lech Poznan or draw
73%
Lech Poznan or Lechia Gdansk
78%
Draw or Lechia Gdansk
50%

Winning margin

Lech Poznan wins by 2+
29%
Lechia Gdansk wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Lech Poznan 1+ goals
85%
Lech Poznan 2+ goals
57%
Lech Poznan 3+ goals
30%
Lechia Gdansk 1+ goals
75%
Lechia Gdansk 2+ goals
40%
Lechia Gdansk 3+ goals
16%

Draw no bet

Lech Poznan (draw refunded)
65%
Lechia Gdansk (draw refunded)
35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
54%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Lech Poznan at home — creates 2.04, concedes 1.26 · 34 matches

Lechia Gdansk away — creates 1.48, concedes 1.81 · 21 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Lech Poznan attack 2.04 + Lechia Gdansk defence 1.81 → ÷2 → 1.93

Lechia Gdansk attack 1.48 + Lech Poznan defence 1.26 → ÷2 → 1.37

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Lech Poznan scores more
50%
level
22%
Lechia Gdansk scores more
27%

Lech Poznan at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Lech Poznan will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

17'
M. Ishak↳ João Amaral
57'
Mateusz Żukowski
57'
L. Zwoliński← Flávio Paixão
57'
B. Diabate← M. Gajos
57'
R. Pietrzak← Conrado
62'
Mario Maloča
63'
N. Kvekveskiri
64'
Dušan Kuciak
71'
K. Sezonienko← J. Ceesay
73'
J. Sýkora← M. Skóraś
73'
Pedro Tiba← N. Kvekveskiri
82'
Dani Ramírez← João Amaral
82'
R. Murawski← J. Karlström
83'
Pedro Tiba
85'
A. Sobiech← M. Ishak
85'
J. Biegański← J. Kubicki

Possession

59%Lech

Shots

10Lech

Statistics

LechLechia
Overview
59%Possession41%
10Total Shots4
7Corners10
10Fouls9
Shots
10Total Shots4
6On Target0
4Off Target4
Passing
59%Possession41%
Goalkeeping
0Saves4
Discipline
10Fouls9
1Yellow Cards3
0Red Cards0
2Offsides3

Match Recap: Lech Poznan vs Lechia Gdansk

Lech Poznan beat Lechia Gdansk 2-0 in Ekstraklasa on August 22, 2021.

Goals: M. Ishak (17'), N. Kvekveskiri (63').

Lech Poznan controlled possession (59%) and registered 10 shots to 4.

The match was played at INEA stadion in Poznań.