Lech Poznan 3–0 Lechia Gdansk: Result & Stats

Lech Poznan

FT

3 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Lechia Gdansk

Dani Ramírez 65'

M. Ishak 57' (pen)

M. Skóraś 52'

4/20/2021

Ekstraklasa · Round 26INEA stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 21+ matches

Lech Poznan50%

×Draw22%

Lechia Gdansk27%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Lech PoznanExpected goals in this matchLechia Gdansk

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.93

1.37

Lech Poznan

1.93

Lechia Gdansk

1.37

Lech Poznan creates 41% more chances

Season form · 34 home / 21 away

2.04

creates per match

1.48

1.26

allows per match

1.81

creates per match

Lech Poznan

2.04

Lechia Gdansk

1.48

allows per match

Lech Poznan

1.26

Lechia Gdansk

1.81

+0.40scores more than expected

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Lech Poznan+0.40scores more

Lechia Gdansk+0.00on par

Total goals

Over64
Under36

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes64
No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Lech Poznan ↓

Lechia Gdansk →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–15%

0–23%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–07%

1–110%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–16%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

84%16%2.5

64%36%3.5

42%58%4.5

23%77%

Double chance

Lech Poznan or draw

73%

Lech Poznan or Lechia Gdansk

78%

Draw or Lechia Gdansk

50%

Winning margin

Lech Poznan wins by 2+

29%

Lechia Gdansk wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Lech Poznan 1+ goals

85%

Lech Poznan 2+ goals

57%

Lech Poznan 3+ goals

30%

Lechia Gdansk 1+ goals

75%

Lechia Gdansk 2+ goals

40%

Lechia Gdansk 3+ goals

16%

Draw no bet

Lech Poznan (draw refunded)

65%

Lechia Gdansk (draw refunded)

35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

54%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Lech Poznan at home — creates 2.04, concedes 1.26 · 34 matches

Lechia Gdansk away — creates 1.48, concedes 1.81 · 21 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Lech Poznan attack 2.04 + Lechia Gdansk defence 1.81 → ÷2 → 1.93

Lechia Gdansk attack 1.48 + Lech Poznan defence 1.26 → ÷2 → 1.37

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Lech Poznan scores more

50%

level

22%

Lechia Gdansk scores more

27%

Lech Poznan at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Lech Poznan will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

16'

34'

46'

52'

57'

M. IshakPenalty

62'

M. Żukowski← J. Kałuziński

62'

Ž. Udovičić← R. Pietrzak

65'

Dani Ramírez↳ J. Kamiński

67'

J. Sýkora← J. Kamiński

72'

F. Szymczak← M. Ishak

72'

F. Marchwiński← Dani Ramírez

75'

F. Koperski← J. Biegański

77'

Tymoteusz Puchacz

80'

Michał Skóraś

80'

E. Vikri← Flávio Paixão

81'

Conrado Buchanelli Holz

82'

J. Karlström← Pedro Tiba

82'

V. Kravets← T. Puchacz

Possession

Shots

Statistics

LechLechia

Overview

55%Possession45%

9Total Shots7

6Corners5

20Fouls13

Shots

9Total Shots7

4On Target2

5Off Target5

Passing

55%Possession45%

Goalkeeping

2Saves1

Discipline

20Fouls13

2Yellow Cards3

0Red Cards0

2Offsides0