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LDU de Quito vs Universidad Catolica — Liga Pro 2026

LDU de Quito
LDU de Quito
FT
2 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Universidad Catolica
Universidad Catolica
F. Martínez 87' (OG)
A. Arce 25'
I. Díaz 81' (pen)
5/26/2024Liga ProLiga Pro · 1st Round - 14Estadio Rodrigo Paz Delgado

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 5+ matches

LDU de Quito42%
×Draw28%
Universidad Catolica30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 577,253 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

LDU de Quito
1.29
Universidad Catolica
1.05

LDU de Quito creates 23% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 5 away

creates per match

LDU de Quito
1.46
Universidad Catolica
1.18

allows per match

LDU de Quito
0.92
Universidad Catolica
1.13

finishing

LDU de Quito-0.03on par
Universidad Catolica-0.18scores less

Total goals

59%Under
  • Under59
  • Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

LDU de Quito ↓

Universidad Catolica →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–110%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–18%
2–24%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
68%32%2.5
41%59%3.5
21%79%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

LDU de Quito or draw
70%
LDU de Quito or Universidad Catolica
72%
Draw or Universidad Catolica
58%

Winning margin

LDU de Quito wins by 2+
19%
Universidad Catolica wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

LDU de Quito 1+ goals
72%
LDU de Quito 2+ goals
37%
LDU de Quito 3+ goals
14%
Universidad Catolica 1+ goals
65%
Universidad Catolica 2+ goals
28%
Universidad Catolica 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

LDU de Quito (draw refunded)
58%
Universidad Catolica (draw refunded)
42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
34%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

LDU de Quito at home — creates 1.46, concedes 0.92 · 7 matches

Universidad Catolica away — creates 1.18, concedes 1.13 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

LDU de Quito attack 1.46 + Universidad Catolica defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 1.29

Universidad Catolica attack 1.18 + LDU de Quito defence 0.92 → ÷2 → 1.05

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

LDU de Quito scores more
42%
level
28%
Universidad Catolica scores more
30%

LDU de Quito at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "LDU de Quito will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

8
L. EstupiñánLDU de QuitoLDU de Quito · M
7.9

Match Events

25'
A. Arce↳ B. Ramírez
29'
B. J. Ramirez Leon
32'
L. Quinonez
36'
G. Villamil
46'
K. Quevedo← G. Vallecilla
46'
A. Rodríguez← L. Loor
50'
E. Clavijo
55'
R. Mina
60'
M. Angulo← A. Arce
61'
L. Piovi← Richard Mina
64'
M. Diaz
64'
A. Rodriguez
68'
L. Estupinan
68'
J. Castillo← J. Cifuente
72'
G. Anangono
75'
J. L. Castillo Saa
76'
M. Parrales← A. Alvarado
76'
J. Hurtado← J. Charcopa
81'
I. DíazPenalty
87'
F. MartínezOwn goal
88'
L. Moreno← M. Díaz
90+4'
Jan Hurtado
90+5'
J. Espinoza← G. Villamíl
90+5'
J. Chalá← E. Clavijo

Possession

49%LDU

Shots

13LDU

Pass accuracy

50%LDU

Statistics

LDUUniversidad
Overview
49%Possession51%
13Total Shots10
2Corners6
18Fouls16
Shots
13Total Shots10
5On Target4
5Off Target2
3Blocked4
9Inside Box6
4Outside Box4
Passing
49%Possession51%
370Total Passes398
306Accurate Passes329
83%Pass Accuracy83%
Goalkeeping
3Saves3
Discipline
18Fouls16
6Yellow Cards5
1Offsides2

Match Recap: LDU de Quito vs Universidad Catolica

LDU de Quito beat Universidad Catolica 2-1 in Liga Pro on May 26, 2024.

Goals: A. Arce (25'), I. Díaz (81' pen), F. Martínez (87' o.g.).

Universidad Catolica controlled possession (51%) and registered 10 shots to 13.

The match was played at Estadio Rodrigo Paz Delgado in Quito.