LDU de Quito 1–5 Universidad Catolica

LDU de Quito

FT

1 – 5

HT: 0 – 2

Universidad Catolica

Anderson Julio 80' (pen)

Bruno Vides 90' (pen)

Walter Chalá 69', 34'

Luis Amarilla 50'

Marcos Andres Lopez 10'

7/13/2019

Liga Pro · Round 17Estadio Rodrigo Paz Delgado

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 5+ matches

LDU de Quito43%

×Draw28%

Universidad Catolica29%

✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.5%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.5% correct across 581,483 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

LDU de QuitoExpected goals in this matchUniversidad Catolica

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.30

1.03

LDU de Quito

1.30

Universidad Catolica

1.03

LDU de Quito creates 26% more chances

Season form · 8 home / 5 away

1.47

creates per match

1.18

0.88

allows per match

1.13

creates per match

LDU de Quito

1.47

Universidad Catolica

1.18

allows per match

LDU de Quito

0.88

Universidad Catolica

1.13

+0.03on par

finishing

-0.18scores less than expected

finishing

LDU de Quito+0.03on par

Universidad Catolica-0.18scores less

Total goals

Under59
Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No53
Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

LDU de Quito ↓

Universidad Catolica →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–110%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–113%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–18%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

68%32%2.5

41%59%3.5

21%79%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

LDU de Quito or draw

71%

LDU de Quito or Universidad Catolica

72%

Draw or Universidad Catolica

57%

Winning margin

LDU de Quito wins by 2+

19%

Universidad Catolica wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

LDU de Quito 1+ goals

73%

LDU de Quito 2+ goals

37%

LDU de Quito 3+ goals

14%

Universidad Catolica 1+ goals

64%

Universidad Catolica 2+ goals

28%

Universidad Catolica 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

LDU de Quito (draw refunded)

59%

Universidad Catolica (draw refunded)

41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

34%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

LDU de Quito at home — creates 1.47, concedes 0.88 · 8 matches

Universidad Catolica away — creates 1.18, concedes 1.13 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

LDU de Quito attack 1.47 + Universidad Catolica defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 1.30

Universidad Catolica attack 1.18 + LDU de Quito defence 0.88 → ÷2 → 1.03

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

LDU de Quito scores more

43%

level

28%

Universidad Catolica scores more

29%

LDU de Quito at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "LDU de Quito will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

9'

Guillermo De los Santos

10'

Marcos Andres Lopez↳ Facundo Martinez

34'

Walter Chalá

40'

Jefferson Orejuela

46'

Kevin Minda← Franklin Guerra

50'

Luis Amarilla↳ Jeison Chalá

60'

Christian Cruz

65'

Cristian Martínez Borja← Edison Vega

69'

Walter Chalá↳ Luis Amarilla

69'

José Ayoví← Adolfo Muñoz

71'

Facundo Martinez

77'

Luis Amarilla

80'

Anderson JulioPenalty

81'

Edison Carcelén← Guillermo De los Santos

82'

Cristian Martínez Borja

83'

Luis Amarilla

83'

Luis Amarilla

87'

Bryan Oña← Jeison Chalá

90'

Bruno VidesPenalty

90'

Diego Armas← Bruno Vides

Possession

Shots

Statistics

LDUUniversidad

Overview

51%Possession49%

11Total Shots11

8Corners6

16Fouls16

Shots

11Total Shots11

3On Target6

8Off Target5

Passing

51%Possession49%

Goalkeeping

1Saves2

Discipline

16Fouls16

3Yellow Cards3

0Red Cards1

2Offsides0