LDU de Quito 5–0 Imbabura: Result & Stats

LDU de Quito

FT

5 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Imbabura

J. Charcopa 86'

L. Piovi 81'

A. Arce 74', 70', 12'

3/29/2024

Liga Pro · 1st Round - 6Estadio Rodrigo Paz Delgado

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

LDU de Quito64%

×Draw20%

Imbabura16%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 577,253 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

LDU de QuitoExpected goals in this matchImbabura

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.12

0.94

LDU de Quito

2.12

Imbabura

0.94

LDU de Quito creates 126% more chances

Season form · 134 home / 15 away

1.91

creates per match

1.00

0.88

allows per match

2.33

creates per match

LDU de Quito

1.91

Imbabura

1.00

allows per match

LDU de Quito

0.88

Imbabura

2.33

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

LDU de Quito+0.00on par

Imbabura+0.00on par

Total goals

Over59
Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes54
No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

LDU de Quito ↓

Imbabura →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–14%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–010%

1–19%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–011%

2–110%

2–25%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–07%

3–17%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–04%

4–14%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (11%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

81%19%2.5

59%41%3.5

36%64%4.5

19%81%

Double chance

LDU de Quito or draw

84%

LDU de Quito or Imbabura

80%

Draw or Imbabura

36%

Winning margin

LDU de Quito wins by 2+

40%

Imbabura wins by 2+

5%

Team goals

LDU de Quito 1+ goals

88%

LDU de Quito 2+ goals

62%

LDU de Quito 3+ goals

35%

Imbabura 1+ goals

61%

Imbabura 2+ goals

24%

Imbabura 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

LDU de Quito (draw refunded)

80%

Imbabura (draw refunded)

20%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

44%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

LDU de Quito at home — creates 1.91, concedes 0.88 · 134 matches

Imbabura away — creates 1.00, concedes 2.33 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

LDU de Quito attack 1.91 + Imbabura defence 2.33 → ÷2 → 2.12

Imbabura attack 1.00 + LDU de Quito defence 0.88 → ÷2 → 0.94

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 64%?"

LDU de Quito scores more

64%

level

20%

Imbabura scores more

16%

LDU de Quito at 64% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 64% does not mean "LDU de Quito will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

19

A. Arce

LDU de Quito · F

9.3

Match Events

7'

W. Folleco← E. Pepinos

12'

A. Arce

42'

Wilson Alfredo Folleco Morales

61'

M. Angulo← M. Parrales

62'

J. Julio← A. Alvarado

64'

Guillermo Coronel

65'

Facundo Rodríguez

70'

J. Guisamano← J. Pita

70'

A. Arce↳ J. Quintero

74'

A. Arce↳ L. Estupiñán

79'

S. González← L. Estupiñán

80'

J. Charcopa← A. Arce

81'

L. Piovi↳ L. Quiñónez

82'

M. Chalá← W. Folleco

82'

D. Burbano← F. Paz

82'

J. Alcivar← R. Caicedo

86'

M. Estrada← L. Piovi

86'

J. Charcopa↳ S. González

87'

Jairón Charcopa

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

LDUImbabura

Overview

57%Possession43%

19Total Shots15

7Corners3

12Fouls14

Shots

19Total Shots15

8On Target4

7Off Target5

4Blocked6

12Inside Box3

7Outside Box12

Passing

57%Possession43%

477Total Passes356

417Accurate Passes300

87%Pass Accuracy84%

Goalkeeping

4Saves3

Discipline

12Fouls14

2Yellow Cards2

0Offsides2