Imbabura 4–0 LDU de Quito: Result & Stats

Imbabura

FT

4 – 0

HT: 4 – 0

LDU de Quito

L. Pantoja 45+2' (pen)

L. Klimowicz 44', 6'

F. Paz 22'

9/14/2024

Liga Pro · 2nd Round - 6Estadio Olímpico de Ibarra

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Imbabura30%

×Draw25%

LDU de Quito44%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 577,253 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

ImbaburaExpected goals in this matchLDU de Quito

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.21

1.52

Imbabura

1.21

LDU de Quito

1.52

LDU de Quito creates 26% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 136 away

1.27

creates per match

1.37

1.67

allows per match

1.15

creates per match

Imbabura

1.27

LDU de Quito

1.37

allows per match

Imbabura

1.67

LDU de Quito

1.15

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Imbabura+0.00on par

LDU de Quito+0.00on par

Total goals

Over51
Under49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes55
No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Imbabura ↓

LDU de Quito →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–110%

0–28%

0–34%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–112%

1–29%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–17%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

76%24%2.5

51%49%3.5

29%71%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

Imbabura or draw

56%

Imbabura or LDU de Quito

75%

Draw or LDU de Quito

70%

Winning margin

Imbabura wins by 2+

13%

LDU de Quito wins by 2+

22%

Team goals

Imbabura 1+ goals

70%

Imbabura 2+ goals

34%

Imbabura 3+ goals

12%

LDU de Quito 1+ goals

78%

LDU de Quito 2+ goals

45%

LDU de Quito 3+ goals

20%

Draw no bet

Imbabura (draw refunded)

41%

LDU de Quito (draw refunded)

59%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

43%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Imbabura at home — creates 1.27, concedes 1.67 · 15 matches

LDU de Quito away — creates 1.37, concedes 1.15 · 136 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Imbabura attack 1.27 + LDU de Quito defence 1.15 → ÷2 → 1.21

LDU de Quito attack 1.37 + Imbabura defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.52

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Imbabura scores more

30%

level

25%

LDU de Quito scores more

44%

LDU de Quito at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "LDU de Quito will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

23

L. Klimowicz

Imbabura · F

8.6

Match Events

6'

L. Klimowicz

17'

Alex ArceGoal cancelled

22'

F. Paz↳ A. Medina

27'

Cristian Tobar

44'

L. Klimowicz↳ L. Espinoza

45+2'

L. PantojaPenalty

46'

L. Estupiñán← A. Zanini

46'

G. Villamíl← M. Julio

58'

E. Mendoza← L. Klimowicz

62'

J. Charcopa← L. Alzugaray

66'

69'

70'

70'

77'

77'

R. Caicedo← S. Sánchez

84'

M. Chalá← A. Medina

85'

M. Angulo← F. Cornejo

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

ImbaburaLDU

Overview

38%Possession62%

15Total Shots15

4Corners7

10Fouls9

Shots

15Total Shots15

9On Target3

3Off Target9

3Blocked3

11Inside Box10

4Outside Box5

Passing

38%Possession62%

209Total Passes334

125Accurate Passes260

60%Pass Accuracy78%

Goalkeeping

3Saves5

Discipline

10Fouls9

3Yellow Cards1

1Red Cards0

0Offsides4