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Imbabura vs LDU de Quito — Copa Ecuador 2022

Imbabura
Imbaburaadvanced
FT
2 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
LDU de Quito
LDU de Quito
7/20/2022Copa EcuadorCopa Ecuador · Round of 16Estadio Olímpico de Ibarra

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Imbabura26%
×Draw25%
LDU de Quito49%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 577,253 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Imbabura
1.13
LDU de Quito
1.63

LDU de Quito creates 44% more chances

Season form · 4 home / 4 away

creates per match

Imbabura
1.50
LDU de Quito
2.00

allows per match

Imbabura
1.25
LDU de Quito
0.75

finishing

Imbabura+0.00on par
LDU de Quito+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Over
  • Over52
  • Under48

Close call

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Imbabura ↓

LDU de Quito →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–110%
0–28%
0–35%
0–42%
1
1–07%
1–112%
1–210%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–25%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
76%24%2.5
52%48%3.5
30%70%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Imbabura or draw
51%
Imbabura or LDU de Quito
75%
Draw or LDU de Quito
74%

Winning margin

Imbabura wins by 2+
10%
LDU de Quito wins by 2+
26%

Team goals

Imbabura 1+ goals
68%
Imbabura 2+ goals
31%
Imbabura 3+ goals
11%
LDU de Quito 1+ goals
80%
LDU de Quito 2+ goals
48%
LDU de Quito 3+ goals
22%

Draw no bet

Imbabura (draw refunded)
35%
LDU de Quito (draw refunded)
65%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
43%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Imbabura at home — creates 1.50, concedes 1.25 · 4 matches

LDU de Quito away — creates 2.00, concedes 0.75 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Imbabura attack 1.50 + LDU de Quito defence 0.75 → ÷2 → 1.13

LDU de Quito attack 2.00 + Imbabura defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.63

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Imbabura scores more
26%
level
25%
LDU de Quito scores more
49%

LDU de Quito at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "LDU de Quito will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Imbabura vs LDU de Quito

Imbabura beat LDU de Quito 2-1 in Copa Ecuador on July 20, 2022.

The match was played at Estadio Olímpico de Ibarra in Ibarra.