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LDU de Quito vs Deportivo Cuenca — Liga Pro 2026

LDU de Quito
LDU de Quito
Preview
20:00
Deportivo Cuenca
Deportivo Cuenca
9/13/2026Liga ProLiga Pro · Round 30Estadio Rodrigo Paz Delgado
Big match
57%
LDU de Quito
model favours
57%24%19%

88% of Deportivo Cuenca’s matches stay under 2.5 goals

brightest fact of this match

1–0
likely score
52%
under 2.5 goals
48%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 130+ matches

LDU de Quito57%
×Draw24%
Deportivo Cuenca19%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.6%
Always home
44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

LDU de Quito
1.71
Deportivo Cuenca
0.87

LDU de Quito creates 97% more chances

Season form · 134 home / 130 away

creates per match

LDU de Quito
1.91
Deportivo Cuenca
0.86

allows per match

LDU de Quito
0.88
Deportivo Cuenca
1.50

finishing

LDU de Quito+0.00on par
Deportivo Cuenca+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Under
  • Under52
  • Over48

Close call

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

LDU de Quito ↓

Deportivo Cuenca →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–17%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–111%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–16%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
73%27%2.5
48%52%3.5
26%74%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

LDU de Quito or draw
81%
LDU de Quito or Deportivo Cuenca
76%
Draw or Deportivo Cuenca
43%

Winning margin

LDU de Quito wins by 2+
32%
Deportivo Cuenca wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

LDU de Quito 1+ goals
82%
LDU de Quito 2+ goals
51%
LDU de Quito 3+ goals
24%
Deportivo Cuenca 1+ goals
58%
Deportivo Cuenca 2+ goals
22%
Deportivo Cuenca 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

LDU de Quito (draw refunded)
75%
Deportivo Cuenca (draw refunded)
25%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

LDU de Quito at home — creates 1.91, concedes 0.88 · 134 matches

Deportivo Cuenca away — creates 0.86, concedes 1.50 · 130 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

LDU de Quito attack 1.91 + Deportivo Cuenca defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.71

Deportivo Cuenca attack 0.86 + LDU de Quito defence 0.88 → ÷2 → 0.87

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

LDU de Quito scores more
57%
level
24%
Deportivo Cuenca scores more
19%

LDU de Quito at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "LDU de Quito will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • LDU de Quito score first in only 24% of matches
  • Deportivo Cuenca score first in only 25% of matches
  • Both teams score in only 31% of Deportivo Cuenca’s matches
  • LDU de Quito matches are rarely goalless — only 3.4% end 0-0
  • Style contrast — LDU de Quito play Defensively solid, Deportivo Cuenca Attack-heavy
  • 37% of LDU de Quito’s goals come after the 75th minute

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Style Matchup

Contrasting styles
LDU de Quito
Defensively solid
Deportivo Cuenca
Attack-heavy
55%Possession51%
81%Pass accuracy78%
13.2Shots13.3
1.32xGBiggest gap1.55
Pass acc.ShotsxGBox shareShot acc.Defense
LDU de QuitoDeportivo Cuenca

Head-to-head

10 previous meetings

5
LDU de Quito
4
Draws
1
Deportivo Cuenca
Avg goals: 2.9BTTS: 50%
1–12–02–22–15–0

Playing styles from match stats. Historical H2H record. Not a prediction.

Form
Quito
LLDDL
Cuenca
LDLLD

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

LDU de Quito face Deportivo Cuenca (Liga Pro)

Liga Pro returns with LDU de Quito hosting Deportivo Cuenca. Match starts September 13, 2026. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

LDU de Quito host Deportivo Cuenca at Estadio Rodrigo Paz Delgado.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.