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Deportivo Cuenca vs LDU de Quito — Liga Pro 2026

Deportivo Cuenca
Deportivo Cuenca
FT
1 – 2
HT: 1 – 1
LDU de Quito
LDU de Quito
3/29/2025Liga ProLiga Pro · Round 6Estadio Alejandro Serrano Aguilar

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 130+ matches

Deportivo Cuenca39%
×Draw26%
LDU de Quito35%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.6%
Always home
44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Deportivo Cuenca
1.34
LDU de Quito
1.25

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 130 home / 136 away

creates per match

Deportivo Cuenca
1.53
LDU de Quito
1.37

allows per match

Deportivo Cuenca
1.13
LDU de Quito
1.15

finishing

Deportivo Cuenca+0.00on par
LDU de Quito+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Under
  • Under52
  • Over48

Close call

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Deportivo Cuenca ↓

LDU de Quito →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–19%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
73%27%2.5
48%52%3.5
26%74%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Deportivo Cuenca or draw
65%
Deportivo Cuenca or LDU de Quito
74%
Draw or LDU de Quito
61%

Winning margin

Deportivo Cuenca wins by 2+
18%
LDU de Quito wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Deportivo Cuenca 1+ goals
74%
Deportivo Cuenca 2+ goals
39%
Deportivo Cuenca 3+ goals
15%
LDU de Quito 1+ goals
71%
LDU de Quito 2+ goals
36%
LDU de Quito 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Deportivo Cuenca (draw refunded)
53%
LDU de Quito (draw refunded)
47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Deportivo Cuenca at home — creates 1.53, concedes 1.13 · 130 matches

LDU de Quito away — creates 1.37, concedes 1.15 · 136 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Deportivo Cuenca attack 1.53 + LDU de Quito defence 1.15 → ÷2 → 1.34

LDU de Quito attack 1.37 + Deportivo Cuenca defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 1.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Deportivo Cuenca scores more
39%
level
26%
LDU de Quito scores more
35%

Deportivo Cuenca at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Deportivo Cuenca will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Liga Pro: Deportivo Cuenca 1–2 LDU de Quito

LDU de Quito beat Deportivo Cuenca 2-1 in Liga Pro on March 29, 2025.

The match was played at Estadio Alejandro Serrano Aguilar in Cuenca.