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LDU de Quito vs Deportivo Cuenca — Copa Ecuador 2022

LDU de Quito
LDU de Quitoadvanced
FT
2 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Deportivo Cuenca
Deportivo Cuenca
11/13/2025Copa EcuadorCopa Ecuador · Quarter-finalsEstadio Rodrigo Paz Delgado

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

LDU de Quito56%
×Draw22%
Deportivo Cuenca22%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.6%
Always home
44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

LDU de Quito
1.92
Deportivo Cuenca
1.13

LDU de Quito creates 70% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 4 away

creates per match

LDU de Quito
2.33
Deportivo Cuenca
1.25

allows per match

LDU de Quito
1.00
Deportivo Cuenca
1.50

finishing

LDU de Quito+0.00on par
Deportivo Cuenca+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Over
  • Over59
  • Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

58%Yes
  • Yes58
  • No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

LDU de Quito ↓

Deportivo Cuenca →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–15%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–110%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–16%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
59%41%3.5
36%64%4.5
19%81%

Double chance

LDU de Quito or draw
78%
LDU de Quito or Deportivo Cuenca
78%
Draw or Deportivo Cuenca
44%

Winning margin

LDU de Quito wins by 2+
32%
Deportivo Cuenca wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

LDU de Quito 1+ goals
85%
LDU de Quito 2+ goals
57%
LDU de Quito 3+ goals
30%
Deportivo Cuenca 1+ goals
68%
Deportivo Cuenca 2+ goals
31%
Deportivo Cuenca 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

LDU de Quito (draw refunded)
72%
Deportivo Cuenca (draw refunded)
28%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
47%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

LDU de Quito at home — creates 2.33, concedes 1.00 · 3 matches

Deportivo Cuenca away — creates 1.25, concedes 1.50 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

LDU de Quito attack 2.33 + Deportivo Cuenca defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.92

Deportivo Cuenca attack 1.25 + LDU de Quito defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.13

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

LDU de Quito scores more
56%
level
22%
Deportivo Cuenca scores more
22%

LDU de Quito at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "LDU de Quito will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Copa Ecuador: LDU de Quito 2–0 Deportivo Cuenca

LDU de Quito beat Deportivo Cuenca 2-0 in Copa Ecuador on November 13, 2025.

The match was played at Estadio Rodrigo Paz Delgado in Quito.