LDU de Quito 5–0 Deportivo Cuenca: Result & Stats

LDU de Quito

FT

5 – 0

HT: 4 – 0

Deportivo Cuenca

12/1/2024

Liga Pro · 2nd Round - 15Estadio Rodrigo Paz Delgado

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 130+ matches

LDU de Quito57%

×Draw24%

Deportivo Cuenca19%

✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.6%

Always home

44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

LDU de QuitoExpected goals in this matchDeportivo Cuenca

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.71

0.87

LDU de Quito

1.71

Deportivo Cuenca

0.87

LDU de Quito creates 97% more chances

Season form · 134 home / 130 away

1.91

creates per match

0.86

0.88

allows per match

1.50

creates per match

LDU de Quito

1.91

Deportivo Cuenca

0.86

allows per match

LDU de Quito

0.88

Deportivo Cuenca

1.50

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

LDU de Quito+0.00on par

Deportivo Cuenca+0.00on par

Total goals

Under52
Over48

Close call

Both teams score

No52
Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

LDU de Quito ↓

Deportivo Cuenca →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–17%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–111%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–011%

2–110%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–06%

3–16%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

73%27%2.5

48%52%3.5

26%74%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

LDU de Quito or draw

81%

LDU de Quito or Deportivo Cuenca

76%

Draw or Deportivo Cuenca

43%

Winning margin

LDU de Quito wins by 2+

32%

Deportivo Cuenca wins by 2+

6%

Team goals

LDU de Quito 1+ goals

82%

LDU de Quito 2+ goals

51%

LDU de Quito 3+ goals

24%

Deportivo Cuenca 1+ goals

58%

Deportivo Cuenca 2+ goals

22%

Deportivo Cuenca 3+ goals

6%

Draw no bet

LDU de Quito (draw refunded)

75%

Deportivo Cuenca (draw refunded)

25%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

36%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

LDU de Quito at home — creates 1.91, concedes 0.88 · 134 matches

Deportivo Cuenca away — creates 0.86, concedes 1.50 · 130 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

LDU de Quito attack 1.91 + Deportivo Cuenca defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.71

Deportivo Cuenca attack 0.86 + LDU de Quito defence 0.88 → ÷2 → 0.87

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

LDU de Quito scores more

57%

level

24%

Deportivo Cuenca scores more

19%

LDU de Quito at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "LDU de Quito will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff