LDU de Quito 5–0 Deportivo Cuenca: Result & Stats

LDU de Quito

FT

5 – 0

HT: 4 – 0

Deportivo Cuenca

J. Sornoza 61'

A. Muñoz 32', 6'

J. Quinteros 28'

C. Martínez 20'

10/14/2020

Liga Pro · 2° Girone - 1Estadio Rodrigo Paz Delgado

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 5+ matches

LDU de Quito47%

×Draw26%

Deportivo Cuenca27%

✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.5%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.5% correct across 581,483 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

LDU de QuitoExpected goals in this matchDeportivo Cuenca

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.52

1.08

LDU de Quito

1.52

Deportivo Cuenca

1.08

LDU de Quito creates 41% more chances

Season form · 8 home / 5 away

1.47

creates per match

1.29

0.88

allows per match

1.56

creates per match

LDU de Quito

1.47

Deportivo Cuenca

1.29

allows per match

LDU de Quito

0.88

Deportivo Cuenca

1.56

+0.03on par

finishing

+0.11scores more than expected

finishing

LDU de Quito+0.03on par

Deportivo Cuenca+0.11scores more

Total goals

Under52
Over48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes52
No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

LDU de Quito ↓

Deportivo Cuenca →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–18%

0–24%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–011%

1–112%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

73%27%2.5

48%52%3.5

26%74%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

LDU de Quito or draw

73%

LDU de Quito or Deportivo Cuenca

74%

Draw or Deportivo Cuenca

53%

Winning margin

LDU de Quito wins by 2+

24%

Deportivo Cuenca wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

LDU de Quito 1+ goals

78%

LDU de Quito 2+ goals

45%

LDU de Quito 3+ goals

20%

Deportivo Cuenca 1+ goals

66%

Deportivo Cuenca 2+ goals

29%

Deportivo Cuenca 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

LDU de Quito (draw refunded)

64%

Deportivo Cuenca (draw refunded)

36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

39%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

LDU de Quito at home — creates 1.47, concedes 0.88 · 8 matches

Deportivo Cuenca away — creates 1.29, concedes 1.56 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

LDU de Quito attack 1.47 + Deportivo Cuenca defence 1.56 → ÷2 → 1.52

Deportivo Cuenca attack 1.29 + LDU de Quito defence 0.88 → ÷2 → 1.08

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

LDU de Quito scores more

47%

level

26%

Deportivo Cuenca scores more

27%

LDU de Quito at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "LDU de Quito will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

6'

A. Muñoz↳ P. Perlaza

15'

F. Guerra

20'

C. Martínez

28'

J. Quinteros↳ A. Muñoz

32'

A. Muñoz↳ J. Alcivar

34'

J. Caicedo← J. Bolaños

46'

L. Caicedo← F. Guerra

46'

I. Zúñiga← A. Quiñonez

57'

J. Chavez

61'

65'

66'

67'

67'

71'

Thiago← D. Jerves

71'

K. Jiménez← D. Neculman

83'

R. Medina← C. Martínez

LDU

Deportivo

26

2

7

6

70

8

16

▼

Jerves

25

▼

Bolaños

20

▼

Piedra

19

▼

Neculman

21

▼

Quiñonez

22

Gabbarini

15

▼

Guerra

20

Cruz

14

⚽

Quinteros

24

Corozo

13

A

▼

Perlaza

10

⚽

▼

Sornoza

5

Villarrue

29

⚽2A

▼

Muñoz

8

A

Alcivar

19

⚽

▼

Martínez

Manager: P. Repetto

46'▲L. Caicedo←▼F. Guerra

66'▲M. Caicedo←▼A. Muñoz

67'▲B. Arce←▼P. Perlaza

67'▲J. Julio←▼J. Sornoza

83'▲R. Medina←▼C. Martínez

LDU de Quito substitutes

4Caicedo17Caicedo11Arce26Julio9Medina30Arce6Ayala1Nazareno7Vega21Ordóñez16Jama

Manager: G. Duró

34'▲J. Caicedo←▼J. Bolaños

46'▲I. Zúñiga←▼A. Quiñonez

65'▲F. Cagua←▼I. Piedra

71'▲Thiago←▼D. Jerves

71'▲K. Jiménez←▼D. Neculman

Deportivo Cuenca substitutes

77Caicedo23Zúñiga4Cagua22Thiago24Jiménez15Mina60Jiménez