LDU de Quito 2–2 Defensa Y Justicia: Result & Stats

LDU de Quito

FT

2 – 2

HT: 1 – 2

Defensa Y Justicia

N. Angulo 71'

J. Quintero 5'

L. Albertengo 44', 29'

5/19/2022

CONMEBOL Sudamericana · Group Stage - 5Estadio Rodrigo Paz Delgado

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

LDU de Quito55%

×Draw24%

Defensa Y Justicia21%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 577,253 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

LDU de QuitoExpected goals in this matchDefensa Y Justicia

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.72

0.97

LDU de Quito

1.72

Defensa Y Justicia

0.97

LDU de Quito creates 77% more chances

Season form · 14 home / 21 away

2.07

creates per match

1.38

0.57

allows per match

1.38

creates per match

LDU de Quito

2.07

Defensa Y Justicia

1.38

allows per match

LDU de Quito

0.57

Defensa Y Justicia

1.38

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

LDU de Quito+0.00on par

Defensa Y Justicia+0.00on par

Total goals

Under50
Over50

Close call

Both teams score

Yes51
No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

LDU de Quito ↓

Defensa Y Justicia →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–17%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–111%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–06%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

75%25%2.5

50%50%3.5

28%72%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

LDU de Quito or draw

79%

LDU de Quito or Defensa Y Justicia

76%

Draw or Defensa Y Justicia

45%

Winning margin

LDU de Quito wins by 2+

30%

Defensa Y Justicia wins by 2+

7%

Team goals

LDU de Quito 1+ goals

82%

LDU de Quito 2+ goals

51%

LDU de Quito 3+ goals

25%

Defensa Y Justicia 1+ goals

62%

Defensa Y Justicia 2+ goals

25%

Defensa Y Justicia 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

LDU de Quito (draw refunded)

72%

Defensa Y Justicia (draw refunded)

28%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

40%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

LDU de Quito at home — creates 2.07, concedes 0.57 · 14 matches

Defensa Y Justicia away — creates 1.38, concedes 1.38 · 21 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

LDU de Quito attack 2.07 + Defensa Y Justicia defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 1.72

Defensa Y Justicia attack 1.38 + LDU de Quito defence 0.57 → ÷2 → 0.97

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

LDU de Quito scores more

55%

level

24%

Defensa Y Justicia scores more

21%

LDU de Quito at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "LDU de Quito will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

7

L. Albertengo

Defensa Y Justicia · F

8.6

Match Events

5'

J. Quintero↳ L. Ayala

12'

Tomás Cardona

29'

L. Albertengo↳ A. Fontana

44'

45+1'

47'

65'

66'

70'

J. Espinoza← J. Ortiz

70'

J. Arce← A. Alvarado

71'

N. Angulo↳ J. Espinoza

74'

Luis Ayala

77'

Manuel Duarte

86'

B. de Jesús← T. Molina

88'

G. Altamirano← M. Duarte

90+2'

Mariano Pieres

90+1'

M. Solari← A. Fontana

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

LDUDefensa

Overview

63%Possession37%

15Total Shots7

8Corners2

15Fouls16

Shots

15Total Shots7

6On Target3

6Off Target4

3Blocked0

8Inside Box3

7Outside Box4

Passing

63%Possession37%

514Total Passes309

436Accurate Passes219

85%Pass Accuracy71%

Goalkeeping

1Saves4

Discipline

15Fouls16

2Yellow Cards5

1Offsides3

Match Recap: LDU de Quito vs Defensa Y Justicia

LDU de Quito and Defensa Y Justicia drew 2-2 in CONMEBOL Sudamericana on May 19, 2022.

Goals: J. Quintero (5'), L. Albertengo (29', 44'), N. Angulo (71').

LDU de Quito controlled possession (63%) and registered 15 shots to 7.

The match was played at Estadio Rodrigo Paz Delgado in Quito.

LDU de Quito vs Defensa Y Justicia — CONMEBOL Sudamericana 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Match Recap: LDU de Quito vs Defensa Y Justicia