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Defensa Y Justicia vs LDU de Quito — CONMEBOL Sudamericana 2026

Defensa Y Justicia
Defensa Y Justicia
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
LDU de Quito
LDU de Quito
10/4/2023CONMEBOL SudamericanaCONMEBOL Sudamericana · Semi-finalsEstadio Ciudad de Lanús - Néstor Díaz Pérez

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Defensa Y Justicia40%
×Draw27%
LDU de Quito33%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 577,253 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Defensa Y Justicia
1.33
LDU de Quito
1.17

Defensa Y Justicia creates 14% more chances

Season form · 20 home / 13 away

creates per match

Defensa Y Justicia
1.20
LDU de Quito
1.23

allows per match

Defensa Y Justicia
1.10
LDU de Quito
1.46

finishing

Defensa Y Justicia+0.00on par
LDU de Quito+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Under
  • Under54
  • Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Defensa Y Justicia ↓

LDU de Quito →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–110%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
46%54%3.5
24%76%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Defensa Y Justicia or draw
67%
Defensa Y Justicia or LDU de Quito
73%
Draw or LDU de Quito
60%

Winning margin

Defensa Y Justicia wins by 2+
18%
LDU de Quito wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Defensa Y Justicia 1+ goals
74%
Defensa Y Justicia 2+ goals
38%
Defensa Y Justicia 3+ goals
15%
LDU de Quito 1+ goals
69%
LDU de Quito 2+ goals
33%
LDU de Quito 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Defensa Y Justicia (draw refunded)
55%
LDU de Quito (draw refunded)
45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Defensa Y Justicia at home — creates 1.20, concedes 1.10 · 20 matches

LDU de Quito away — creates 1.23, concedes 1.46 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Defensa Y Justicia attack 1.20 + LDU de Quito defence 1.46 → ÷2 → 1.33

LDU de Quito attack 1.23 + Defensa Y Justicia defence 1.10 → ÷2 → 1.17

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Defensa Y Justicia scores more
40%
level
27%
LDU de Quito scores more
33%

Defensa Y Justicia at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Defensa Y Justicia will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

22
A. DomínguezLDU de QuitoLDU de Quito · G
8.3

Match Events

5'
Paolo Guerrero
14'
Julián López
21'
Agustin Sant'Anna
24'
Lucas Pratto
45+1'
Alexis Soto
46'
M. Duarte← J. López
66'
S. Solari← D. Cáceres
69'
A. Alvarado← S. González
77'
A. Ríos← M. Duarte
77'
G. Castellani← A. SantAnna
86'
R. Mina← R. Ibarra
90'
Santiago Solari
90'
J. Angulo← P. Guerrero
90'
Ó. Zambrano← J. Julio

Possession

60%Defensa

Shots

35Defensa

Pass accuracy

54%Defensa

Statistics

DefensaLDU
Overview
60%Possession40%
35Total Shots8
18Corners1
13Fouls8
Shots
35Total Shots8
5On Target2
18Off Target5
12Blocked1
18Inside Box4
17Outside Box4
Passing
60%Possession40%
419Total Passes317
322Accurate Passes208
77%Pass Accuracy66%
Goalkeeping
2Saves5
Discipline
13Fouls8
5Yellow Cards1
3Offsides1

CONMEBOL Sudamericana: Defensa Y Justicia 0–0 LDU de Quito

Defensa Y Justicia and LDU de Quito drew 0-0 in CONMEBOL Sudamericana on October 4, 2023.

Defensa Y Justicia controlled possession (60%) and registered 35 shots to 8.

The match was played at Estadio Ciudad de Lanús - Néstor Díaz Pérez in Lanús, Provincia de Buenos Aires.