Defensa Y Justicia 1–2 LDU de Quito: Result & Stats

Defensa Y Justicia

FT

1 – 2

HT: 0 – 0

LDU de Quito

L. Albertengo 82'

A. Alvarado 87', 55'

4/28/2022

CONMEBOL Sudamericana · Group Stage - 3Estadio Norberto Tito Tomaghello

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Defensa Y Justicia40%

×Draw27%

LDU de Quito33%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 577,253 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Defensa Y JusticiaExpected goals in this matchLDU de Quito

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.33

1.17

Defensa Y Justicia

1.33

LDU de Quito

1.17

Defensa Y Justicia creates 14% more chances

Season form · 20 home / 13 away

1.20

creates per match

1.23

1.10

allows per match

1.46

creates per match

Defensa Y Justicia

1.20

LDU de Quito

1.23

allows per match

Defensa Y Justicia

1.10

LDU de Quito

1.46

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Defensa Y Justicia+0.00on par

LDU de Quito+0.00on par

Total goals

Under54
Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

Yes51
No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Defensa Y Justicia ↓

LDU de Quito →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–110%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–113%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

71%29%2.5

46%54%3.5

24%76%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Defensa Y Justicia or draw

67%

Defensa Y Justicia or LDU de Quito

73%

Draw or LDU de Quito

60%

Winning margin

Defensa Y Justicia wins by 2+

18%

LDU de Quito wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Defensa Y Justicia 1+ goals

74%

Defensa Y Justicia 2+ goals

38%

Defensa Y Justicia 3+ goals

15%

LDU de Quito 1+ goals

69%

LDU de Quito 2+ goals

33%

LDU de Quito 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Defensa Y Justicia (draw refunded)

55%

LDU de Quito (draw refunded)

45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

38%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Defensa Y Justicia at home — creates 1.20, concedes 1.10 · 20 matches

LDU de Quito away — creates 1.23, concedes 1.46 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Defensa Y Justicia attack 1.20 + LDU de Quito defence 1.46 → ÷2 → 1.33

LDU de Quito attack 1.23 + Defensa Y Justicia defence 1.10 → ÷2 → 1.17

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Defensa Y Justicia scores more

40%

level

27%

LDU de Quito scores more

33%

Defensa Y Justicia at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Defensa Y Justicia will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

8

A. Alvarado

LDU de Quito · M

9.9

Match Events

55'

A. Alvarado

70'

G. Alanís← W. Bou

71'

N. Angulo← M. Hoyos

78'

L. Albertengo← A. Soto

78'

A. Fontana← C. Rotondi

82'

L. Albertengo↳ K. Gutiérrez

85'

86'

86'

87'

90+1'

90+1'

90+1'

90'

M. Corozo← Ó. Zambrano

90'

F. Guerra← A. Alvarado

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

DefensaLDU

Overview

62%Possession38%

29Total Shots16

12Corners5

10Fouls5

Shots

29Total Shots16

12On Target7

12Off Target6

5Blocked3

18Inside Box9

11Outside Box7

Passing

62%Possession38%

490Total Passes301

394Accurate Passes201

80%Pass Accuracy67%

Goalkeeping

5Saves10

Discipline

10Fouls5

3Yellow Cards1

7Offsides3