LDU de Quito 1–0 Botafogo: Result & Stats

LDU de Quito

FT

1 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Botafogo

L. Alzugaray 4'

4/11/2024

CONMEBOL Libertadores · Group Stage - 2Estadio Rodrigo Paz Delgado

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

LDU de Quito59%

×Draw24%

Botafogo17%

✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.5%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.5% correct across 577,134 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.8% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

LDU de QuitoExpected goals in this matchBotafogo

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.71

0.80

LDU de Quito

1.71

Botafogo

0.80

LDU de Quito creates 114% more chances

Season form · 24 home / 14 away

2.29

creates per match

0.86

0.75

allows per match

1.14

creates per match

LDU de Quito

2.29

Botafogo

0.86

allows per match

LDU de Quito

0.75

Botafogo

1.14

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

LDU de Quito+0.00on par

Botafogo+0.00on par

Total goals

Under54
Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No55
Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

LDU de Quito ↓

Botafogo →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–17%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–014%

1–111%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–012%

2–110%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–07%

3–15%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

71%29%2.5

46%54%3.5

24%76%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

LDU de Quito or draw

83%

LDU de Quito or Botafogo

76%

Draw or Botafogo

41%

Winning margin

LDU de Quito wins by 2+

33%

Botafogo wins by 2+

5%

Team goals

LDU de Quito 1+ goals

82%

LDU de Quito 2+ goals

51%

LDU de Quito 3+ goals

24%

Botafogo 1+ goals

55%

Botafogo 2+ goals

19%

Botafogo 3+ goals

5%

Draw no bet

LDU de Quito (draw refunded)

77%

Botafogo (draw refunded)

23%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

34%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

LDU de Quito at home — creates 2.29, concedes 0.75 · 24 matches

Botafogo away — creates 0.86, concedes 1.14 · 14 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

LDU de Quito attack 2.29 + Botafogo defence 1.14 → ÷2 → 1.71

Botafogo attack 0.86 + LDU de Quito defence 0.75 → ÷2 → 0.80

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 59%?"

LDU de Quito scores more

59%

level

24%

Botafogo scores more

17%

LDU de Quito at 59% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 59% does not mean "LDU de Quito will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

14

J. Quintero

LDU de Quito · D

8.0

Match Events

4'

L. Alzugaray↳ A. Arce

15'

G. Villamíl← M. Angulo

28'

Michael EstradaGoal cancelled

45+4'

Facundo Rodríguez

46'

Tchê Tchê← Danilo Barbosa

58'

S. González← M. Estrada

59'

J. Julio← L. Estupiñán

64'

Ó. Romero← Jeffinho

67'

Gabriel Villamil

71'

Matheus Nascimento← Luiz Henrique

79'

Gregore← M. Ponte

79'

Raí← Hugo

84'

Jhojan Julio

87'

D. Romero← L. Alzugaray

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

LDUBotafogo

Overview

42%Possession58%

14Total Shots10

0.88Expected Goals (xG)0.85

8Corners3

10Fouls7

Shots

14Total Shots10

3On Target2

9Off Target6

2Blocked2

7Inside Box3

7Outside Box7

Passing

42%Possession58%

318Total Passes459

254Accurate Passes384

80%Pass Accuracy84%

Goalkeeping

2Saves2

Discipline

10Fouls7

3Yellow Cards0

4Offsides2