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LDU de Quito vs Botafogo — CONMEBOL Sudamericana 2019

LDU de Quito
LDU de Quito
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Botafogo
Botafogo
6/7/2023CONMEBOL SudamericanaCONMEBOL Sudamericana · Group Stage - 5Estadio Rodrigo Paz Delgado

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 12+ matches

LDU de Quito45%
×Draw26%
Botafogo30%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.5%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.5% correct across 577,134 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.8% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

LDU de Quito
1.49
Botafogo
1.16

LDU de Quito creates 28% more chances

Season form · 14 home / 12 away

creates per match

LDU de Quito
2.07
Botafogo
1.75

allows per match

LDU de Quito
0.57
Botafogo
0.92

finishing

LDU de Quito+0.00on par
Botafogo+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Under
  • Under51
  • Over49

Close call

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

LDU de Quito ↓

Botafogo →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–18%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
49%51%3.5
27%73%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

LDU de Quito or draw
70%
LDU de Quito or Botafogo
74%
Draw or Botafogo
55%

Winning margin

LDU de Quito wins by 2+
22%
Botafogo wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

LDU de Quito 1+ goals
77%
LDU de Quito 2+ goals
44%
LDU de Quito 3+ goals
19%
Botafogo 1+ goals
69%
Botafogo 2+ goals
32%
Botafogo 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

LDU de Quito (draw refunded)
60%
Botafogo (draw refunded)
40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
41%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

LDU de Quito at home — creates 2.07, concedes 0.57 · 14 matches

Botafogo away — creates 1.75, concedes 0.92 · 12 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

LDU de Quito attack 2.07 + Botafogo defence 0.92 → ÷2 → 1.49

Botafogo attack 1.75 + LDU de Quito defence 0.57 → ÷2 → 1.16

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

LDU de Quito scores more
45%
level
26%
Botafogo scores more
30%

LDU de Quito at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "LDU de Quito will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

12
Lucas PerriBotafogoBotafogo · G
8.6

Match Events

17'
Rafael
46'
L. Di Plácido← Rafael
46'
Luis Henrique← Victor Sá
52'
Marlon Freitas
64'
Víctor Cuesta
65'
Júnior Santos← Janderson
66'
J. Anangonó← J. Angulo
68'
Hugo
78'
Júnior Santos
79'
S. González← J. Julio
79'
B. Ramírez← L. Quiñónez
84'
Lucas Fernandes← Gustavo Sauer

Possession

63%LDU

Shots

19LDU

Pass accuracy

53%LDU

Statistics

LDUBotafogo
Overview
63%Possession37%
19Total Shots9
5Corners2
13Fouls14
Shots
19Total Shots9
8On Target3
7Off Target5
4Blocked1
12Inside Box6
7Outside Box3
Passing
63%Possession37%
505Total Passes301
430Accurate Passes228
85%Pass Accuracy76%
Goalkeeping
3Saves8
Discipline
13Fouls14
0Yellow Cards5

CONMEBOL Sudamericana: LDU de Quito 0–0 Botafogo

LDU de Quito and Botafogo drew 0-0 in CONMEBOL Sudamericana on June 7, 2023.

LDU de Quito controlled possession (63%) and registered 19 shots to 9.

The match was played at Estadio Rodrigo Paz Delgado in Quito.