Botafogo 2–1 LDU de Quito: Result & Stats

Botafogo

FT

2 – 1

HT: 1 – 1

LDU de Quito

Júnior Santos 69'

Hugo 31'

M. Estrada 45+1'

5/9/2024

CONMEBOL Libertadores · Group Stage - 4Estádio Nilton Santos

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

Botafogo63%

×Draw22%

LDU de Quito15%

✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.5%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.5% correct across 577,134 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.8% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

BotafogoExpected goals in this matchLDU de Quito

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.86

0.77

Botafogo

1.86

LDU de Quito

0.77

Botafogo creates 142% more chances

Season form · 14 home / 24 away

2.14

creates per match

0.83

0.71

allows per match

1.58

creates per match

Botafogo

2.14

LDU de Quito

0.83

allows per match

Botafogo

0.71

LDU de Quito

1.58

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Botafogo+0.00on par

LDU de Quito+0.00on par

Total goals

Under51
Over49

Close call

Both teams score

No55
Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Botafogo ↓

LDU de Quito →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–16%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–110%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–013%

2–110%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–08%

3–16%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–04%

4–13%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

74%26%2.5

49%51%3.5

27%73%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Botafogo or draw

85%

Botafogo or LDU de Quito

78%

Draw or LDU de Quito

37%

Winning margin

Botafogo wins by 2+

37%

LDU de Quito wins by 2+

4%

Team goals

Botafogo 1+ goals

84%

Botafogo 2+ goals

55%

Botafogo 3+ goals

28%

LDU de Quito 1+ goals

54%

LDU de Quito 2+ goals

18%

LDU de Quito 3+ goals

4%

Draw no bet

Botafogo (draw refunded)

81%

LDU de Quito (draw refunded)

19%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

35%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Botafogo at home — creates 2.14, concedes 0.71 · 14 matches

LDU de Quito away — creates 0.83, concedes 1.58 · 24 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Botafogo attack 2.14 + LDU de Quito defence 1.58 → ÷2 → 1.86

LDU de Quito attack 0.83 + Botafogo defence 0.71 → ÷2 → 0.77

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 63%?"

Botafogo scores more

63%

level

22%

LDU de Quito scores more

15%

Botafogo at 63% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 63% does not mean "Botafogo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

16

Hugo

Botafogo · D

7.7

Match Events

18'

M. EstradaGoal Disallowed - offside

31'

Hugo↳ Luiz Henrique

45'

Lucas Halter

45+7'

M. Estrada

45+1'

M. Estrada↳ L. Quiñónez

46'

51'

56'

57'

62'

J. Charcopa← M. Estrada

68'

Gregore← Danilo Barbosa

68'

D. Hernández← Luiz Henrique

69'

Júnior Santos↳ Ó. Romero

72'

A. Dominguez

77'

L. Alzugaray← G. Villamíl

77'

A. Alvarado← L. Estupiñán

82'

L. Piovi

87'

Tchê Tchê← J. Savarino

90'

Diego Hernandez

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

BotafogoLDU

Overview

60%Possession40%

13Total Shots12

2.22Expected Goals (xG)0.93

1Corners5

18Fouls11

Shots

13Total Shots12

5On Target4

3Off Target4

5Blocked4

6Inside Box7

7Outside Box5

Passing

60%Possession40%

412Total Passes261

341Accurate Passes191

83%Pass Accuracy73%

Goalkeeping

3Saves3

Discipline

18Fouls11

4Yellow Cards3

3Offsides2

Match Recap: Botafogo vs LDU de Quito

Botafogo beat LDU de Quito 2-1 in CONMEBOL Libertadores on May 9, 2024.

Goals: Hugo (31'), M. Estrada (45+1'), Júnior Santos (69').

Botafogo controlled possession (60%) and registered 13 shots to 12.

The match was played at Estádio Nilton Santos in Rio de Janeiro.

Botafogo vs LDU de Quito — CONMEBOL Libertadores 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Match Recap: Botafogo vs LDU de Quito