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Latvia vs FYR Macedonia — UEFA Nations League 2018

Latvia
Latvia
FT
0 – 3
HT: 0 – 1
FYR Macedonia
FYR Macedonia
E. Elmas 90+3'
L. Qamili 70'
J. Atanasov 35'
10/10/2024UEFA Nations LeagueUEFA Nations League · League C - 3Skonto

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 10+ matches

Latvia32%
×Draw30%
FYR Macedonia38%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 580,715 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.3% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Latvia
1.00
FYR Macedonia
1.10

FYR Macedonia creates 10% more chances

Season form · 10 home / 10 away

creates per match

Latvia
1.00
FYR Macedonia
1.20

allows per match

Latvia
1.00
FYR Macedonia
1.00

finishing

Latvia+0.00on par
FYR Macedonia+0.00on par

Total goals

65%Under
  • Under65
  • Over35

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

58%No
  • No58
  • Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Latvia ↓

FYR Macedonia →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–113%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–17%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
62%38%2.5
35%65%3.5
16%84%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Latvia or draw
62%
Latvia or FYR Macedonia
70%
Draw or FYR Macedonia
68%

Winning margin

Latvia wins by 2+
12%
FYR Macedonia wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Latvia 1+ goals
63%
Latvia 2+ goals
26%
Latvia 3+ goals
8%
FYR Macedonia 1+ goals
67%
FYR Macedonia 2+ goals
30%
FYR Macedonia 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Latvia (draw refunded)
46%
FYR Macedonia (draw refunded)
54%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
29%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Latvia at home — creates 1.00, concedes 1.00 · 10 matches

FYR Macedonia away — creates 1.20, concedes 1.00 · 10 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Latvia attack 1.00 + FYR Macedonia defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.00

FYR Macedonia attack 1.20 + Latvia defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.10

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Latvia scores more
32%
level
30%
FYR Macedonia scores more
38%

FYR Macedonia at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "FYR Macedonia will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

7
E. ElmasFYR MacedoniaFYR Macedonia · M
8.2

Match Events

17'
D. Šits← V. Gutkovskis
35'
J. Atanasov
42'
Andrejs Cigaņiks
55'
B. Dimoski← S. Ashkovski
55'
T. Kostadinov← V. Musliu
61'
Bojan Dimoski
66'
M. Ristovski← D. Babunski
66'
L. Qamili← E. Alioski
70'
L. Qamili
71'
R. Uldriķis← V. Jagodinskis
80'
Milan Ristovski
82'
L. Vapne← A. Saveļjevs
82'
E. Dašķevičs← D. Zelenkovs
85'
D. Velkovski← B. Miovski
90+3'
E. Elmas

Possession

47%Latvia

Shots

11Latvia

Pass accuracy

49%Latvia

Statistics

LatviaFYR
Overview
47%Possession53%
11Total Shots14
5Corners4
11Fouls12
Shots
11Total Shots14
2On Target7
4Off Target3
5Blocked4
5Inside Box6
6Outside Box8
Passing
47%Possession53%
421Total Passes502
347Accurate Passes432
82%Pass Accuracy86%
Goalkeeping
4Saves2
Discipline
11Fouls12
1Yellow Cards2
2Offsides1

UEFA Nations League: Latvia 0–3 FYR Macedonia

FYR Macedonia beat Latvia 3-0 in UEFA Nations League on October 10, 2024.

Goals: J. Atanasov (35'), L. Qamili (70'), E. Elmas (90+3').

FYR Macedonia controlled possession (53%) and registered 14 shots to 11.

The match was played at Skonto in Riga.