FYR Macedonia 0–0 Latvia: Result & Stats

FYR Macedonia

FT

0 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Latvia

11/13/2025

Friendlies · Friendlies 1Nacional Arena Todor Proeski

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 9+ matches

FYR Macedonia49%

×Draw27%

Latvia24%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

FYR MacedoniaExpected goals in this matchLatvia

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.42

0.89

FYR Macedonia

1.42

Latvia

0.89

FYR Macedonia creates 60% more chances

Season form · 9 home / 10 away

1.33

creates per match

1.00

0.78

allows per match

1.50

creates per match

FYR Macedonia

1.33

Latvia

1.00

allows per match

FYR Macedonia

0.78

Latvia

1.50

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

FYR Macedonia+0.00on par

Latvia+0.00on par

Total goals

Under59
Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No55
Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FYR Macedonia ↓

Latvia →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–19%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–014%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

67%33%2.5

41%59%3.5

20%80%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

FYR Macedonia or draw

76%

FYR Macedonia or Latvia

73%

Draw or Latvia

51%

Winning margin

FYR Macedonia wins by 2+

24%

Latvia wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

FYR Macedonia 1+ goals

76%

FYR Macedonia 2+ goals

41%

FYR Macedonia 3+ goals

17%

Latvia 1+ goals

59%

Latvia 2+ goals

22%

Latvia 3+ goals

6%

Draw no bet

FYR Macedonia (draw refunded)

68%

Latvia (draw refunded)

32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

32%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FYR Macedonia at home — creates 1.33, concedes 0.78 · 9 matches

Latvia away — creates 1.00, concedes 1.50 · 10 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FYR Macedonia attack 1.33 + Latvia defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.42

Latvia attack 1.00 + FYR Macedonia defence 0.78 → ÷2 → 0.89

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

FYR Macedonia scores more

49%

level

27%

Latvia scores more

24%

FYR Macedonia at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "FYR Macedonia will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

26'

Jānis Ikaunieks

45+2'

Nikola Serafimov

46'

Lirim Qamili← Enis Bardhi

46'

Roberts Veips← Daniels Balodis

46'

Deniss Melniks← Antonijs Černomordijs

49'

Vladislavs Gutkovskis

56'

Marko Regža← Vladislavs Gutkovskis

56'

Maksims Tonisevs← Andrejs Cigaņiks

60'

Eljif Elmas← Darko Churlinov

60'

Bojan Miovski← Elmin Rastoder

60'

Aleksandar Trajkovski← Milan Ristovski

62'

Tihomir Kostadinov

70'

Reshat Ramadani← Tihomir Kostadinov

70'

Bruno Melnis← Eduards Daskevics

81'

Bojan Dimoski← Stefan Aškovski

84'

Aleksejs Saveljevs← Dmitrijs Zelenkovs

88'

Roberts Savaļnieks

Possession

Statistics

FYRLatvia

Overview

50%Possession50%

2Corners4

8Fouls17

Shots

7On Target3

3Off Target4

2Blocked1

Passing

50%Possession50%

Discipline

8Fouls17

2Yellow Cards3

0Red Cards0

0Offsides2