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FYR Macedonia vs Latvia — Euro Championship 2024

FYR Macedonia
FYR Macedonia
FT
3 – 1
HT: 2 – 0
Latvia
Latvia
E. Elmas 90+3', 29'
E. Alioski 11'
D. Velkovski 87' (OG)
3/21/2019Euro ChampionshipEuro Championship · Qualifying Round - 1Toše Proeski Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

FYR Macedonia65%
×Draw19%
Latvia16%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 580,715 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.3% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

FYR Macedonia
2.27
Latvia
1.04

FYR Macedonia creates 118% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 4 away

creates per match

FYR Macedonia
1.29
Latvia
0.50

allows per match

FYR Macedonia
1.57
Latvia
3.25

finishing

FYR Macedonia+0.00on par
Latvia+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Over
  • Over64
  • Under36

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

58%Yes
  • Yes58
  • No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FYR Macedonia ↓

Latvia →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–14%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–08%
1–19%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–17%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–14%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
84%16%2.5
64%36%3.5
42%58%4.5
23%77%

Double chance

FYR Macedonia or draw
84%
FYR Macedonia or Latvia
81%
Draw or Latvia
35%

Winning margin

FYR Macedonia wins by 2+
42%
Latvia wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

FYR Macedonia 1+ goals
90%
FYR Macedonia 2+ goals
66%
FYR Macedonia 3+ goals
39%
Latvia 1+ goals
65%
Latvia 2+ goals
28%
Latvia 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

FYR Macedonia (draw refunded)
80%
Latvia (draw refunded)
20%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
49%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FYR Macedonia at home — creates 1.29, concedes 1.57 · 7 matches

Latvia away — creates 0.50, concedes 3.25 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FYR Macedonia attack 1.29 + Latvia defence 3.25 → ÷2 → 2.27

Latvia attack 0.50 + FYR Macedonia defence 1.57 → ÷2 → 1.04

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 65%?"

FYR Macedonia scores more
65%
level
19%
Latvia scores more
16%

FYR Macedonia at 65% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 65% does not mean "FYR Macedonia will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

21
E. ElmasFYR MacedoniaFYR Macedonia · M
8.5

Match Events

11'
E. Alioski↳ G. Pandev
23'
E. Elmas← F. Hasani
29'
E. Elmas
33'
P. Šteinbors← A. Vaņins
60'
Andrejs Ciganiks
69'
K. Tobers← A. Karašausks
71'
K. Ristevski← G. Pandev
79'
R. Uldriķis← V. Šabala
84'
K. Markoski← A. Trajkovski
87'
D. VelkovskiOwn goal
90'
Andrejs Ciganiks
90'
Andrejs Ciganiks
90+3'
E. Elmas↳ E. Alioski

Possession

59%FYR

Shots

25FYR

Pass accuracy

53%FYR

Statistics

FYRLatvia
Overview
59%Possession41%
25Total Shots7
12Corners1
9Fouls20
Shots
25Total Shots7
8On Target2
7Off Target3
10Blocked2
16Inside Box2
9Outside Box5
Passing
59%Possession41%
505Total Passes348
417Accurate Passes257
83%Pass Accuracy74%
Goalkeeping
2Saves5
Discipline
9Fouls20
0Yellow Cards2
–Red Cards1
3Offsides1

Match Recap: FYR Macedonia vs Latvia

FYR Macedonia beat Latvia 3-1 in Euro Championship on March 21, 2019.

Goals: E. Alioski (11'), E. Elmas (29', 90+3'), D. Velkovski (87' o.g.).

FYR Macedonia controlled possession (59%) and registered 25 shots to 7.

The match was played at Toše Proeski Arena in Skopje.