Las Rozas 1–2 Atlético Madrid II: Result & Stats

Las Rozas

1 – 2

HT: 1 – 2

Atlético Madrid II

Alberto Cuéllar 1'

Jordi Ferrer 33'

Carlos Martín 26'

4/3/2022

Tercera División RFEF - Group 7 · Group 7 - 37Estadio Navalcarbón

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 20+ matches

Las Rozas33%

×Draw27%

Atlético Madrid II41%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Las RozasExpected goals in this matchAtlético Madrid II

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.19

1.36

Las Rozas

1.19

Atlético Madrid II

1.36

Atlético Madrid II creates 14% more chances

Season form · 88 home / 20 away

1.78

creates per match

1.60

1.13

allows per match

0.60

creates per match

Las Rozas

1.78

Atlético Madrid II

1.60

allows per match

Las Rozas

1.13

Atlético Madrid II

0.60

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Las Rozas+0.00on par

Atlético Madrid II+0.00on par

Total goals

Under53
Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

Yes52
No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Las Rozas ↓

Atlético Madrid II →

0–08%

0–111%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1–09%

1–113%

1–29%

1–34%

1–41%

2–06%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

72%28%2.5

47%53%3.5

25%75%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Las Rozas or draw

59%

Las Rozas or Atlético Madrid II

73%

Draw or Atlético Madrid II

67%

Winning margin

Las Rozas wins by 2+

14%

Atlético Madrid II wins by 2+

19%

Team goals

Las Rozas 1+ goals

70%

Las Rozas 2+ goals

33%

Las Rozas 3+ goals

12%

Atlético Madrid II 1+ goals

74%

Atlético Madrid II 2+ goals

39%

Atlético Madrid II 3+ goals

16%

Draw no bet

Las Rozas (draw refunded)

45%

Atlético Madrid II (draw refunded)

55%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

39%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Las Rozas at home — creates 1.78, concedes 1.13 · 88 matches

Atlético Madrid II away — creates 1.60, concedes 0.60 · 20 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Las Rozas attack 1.78 + Atlético Madrid II defence 0.60 → ÷2 → 1.19

Atlético Madrid II attack 1.60 + Las Rozas defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 1.36

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 41%?"

Las Rozas scores more

33%

level

27%

Atlético Madrid II scores more

41%

Atlético Madrid II at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Atlético Madrid II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

Alberto Cuéllar

26'

Carlos Martín

33'

Jordi Ferrer

80'

Fernando← Alberto Cuéllar

84'

David Fernández← Álex Calatrava

89'

Verde← Alberto Moreno

89'

Joan Rojas← Carlos Martín

90+2'

E. Sutherland← Jordi Ferrer

Las

Atlético

▼

⚽

▼

Martín

⚽

▼

▼

⚽

▼

Cuéllar

Flores

Manager: Carlos

80'▲Fernando←▼Alberto Cuéllar

Las Rozas substitutes

Fernando

Manager: Tevenet

84'▲David Fernández←▼Álex Calatrava

89'▲Verde←▼Alberto Moreno

89'▲Joan Rojas←▼Carlos Martín

90+2'▲E. Sutherland←▼Jordi Ferrer

Atlético Madrid II substitutes

FernándezVerdeRojasSutherland

Match Recap: Las Rozas vs Atlético Madrid II

Atlético Madrid II beat Las Rozas 2-1 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 7 on April 3, 2022.

Goals: Alberto Cuéllar (1'), Carlos Martín (26'), Jordi Ferrer (33').

The match was played at Estadio Navalcarbón in Las Rozas de Madrid.

Las Rozas vs Atlético Madrid II — Tercera División RFEF - Group 7 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Match Recap: Las Rozas vs Atlético Madrid II