Atlético Madrid II 2–1 Las Rozas: Result & Stats

Atlético Madrid II

2 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Las Rozas

Fran Gonzalez 52'

G. Simeone 16'

Alberto Salido 65'

12/4/2021

Tercera División RFEF - Group 7 · Group 7 - 16Miniestadio Cerro del Espino

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 20+ matches

Atlético Madrid II57%

×Draw23%

Las Rozas20%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Atlético Madrid IIExpected goals in this matchLas Rozas

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.82

0.96

Atlético Madrid II

1.82

Las Rozas

0.96

Atlético Madrid II creates 90% more chances

Season form · 20 home / 88 away

2.50

creates per match

1.23

0.70

allows per match

1.15

creates per match

Atlético Madrid II

2.50

Las Rozas

1.23

allows per match

Atlético Madrid II

0.70

Las Rozas

1.15

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Atlético Madrid II+0.00on par

Las Rozas+0.00on par

Total goals

Over52
Under48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes52
No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Atlético Madrid II ↓

Las Rozas →

0–06%

0–16%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1–011%

1–111%

1–25%

1–32%

1–40%

2–010%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3–06%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4–03%

4–13%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

76%24%2.5

52%48%3.5

30%70%4.5

15%85%

Double chance

Atlético Madrid II or draw

80%

Atlético Madrid II or Las Rozas

77%

Draw or Las Rozas

43%

Winning margin

Atlético Madrid II wins by 2+

33%

Las Rozas wins by 2+

Team goals

Atlético Madrid II 1+ goals

84%

Atlético Madrid II 2+ goals

54%

Atlético Madrid II 3+ goals

27%

Las Rozas 1+ goals

62%

Las Rozas 2+ goals

25%

Las Rozas 3+ goals

Draw no bet

Atlético Madrid II (draw refunded)

75%

Las Rozas (draw refunded)

25%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

41%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Atlético Madrid II at home — creates 2.50, concedes 0.70 · 20 matches

Las Rozas away — creates 1.23, concedes 1.15 · 88 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Atlético Madrid II attack 2.50 + Las Rozas defence 1.15 → ÷2 → 1.82

Las Rozas attack 1.23 + Atlético Madrid II defence 0.70 → ÷2 → 0.96

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 57%?"

Atlético Madrid II scores more

57%

level

23%

Las Rozas scores more

20%

Atlético Madrid II at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "Atlético Madrid II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

16'

G. Simeone

46'

Fran Gonzalez← Marco Moreno

52'

Fran Gonzalez

61'

S. Palacios← David Flores

61'

Marco Balsera← Tito Malagón

65'

Alberto Salido

69'

A. Solano← David Fernández

69'

Mario Musy← E. Sutherland

82'

Yerpes← Alberto Salido

85'

Jordi Ferrer← G. Simeone

88'

Alberto Moreno← Carlos Martín

Atlético

Las

▼

⚽

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

⚽

▼

Simeone

Manager: Tevenet

46'▲Fran Gonzalez←▼Marco Moreno

69'▲A. Solano←▼David Fernández

69'▲Mario Musy←▼E. Sutherland

85'▲Jordi Ferrer←▼G. Simeone

88'▲Alberto Moreno←▼Carlos Martín

Atlético Madrid II substitutes

GonzalezSolanoMusyFerrerMoreno

Manager: Carlos

61'▲S. Palacios←▼David Flores

61'▲Marco Balsera←▼Tito Malagón

82'▲Yerpes←▼Alberto Salido

Las Rozas substitutes

PalaciosBalseraYerpes

Match Recap: Atlético Madrid II vs Las Rozas

Atlético Madrid II beat Las Rozas 2-1 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 7 on December 4, 2021.

Goals: G. Simeone (16'), Fran Gonzalez (52'), Alberto Salido (65').

The match was played at Miniestadio Cerro del Espino in Majadahonda.

Atlético Madrid II vs Las Rozas — Tercera División RFEF - Group 7 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Match Recap: Atlético Madrid II vs Las Rozas