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Las Rozas vs Atlético Madrid II — Primera División RFEF - Group 1 2019

Las Rozas
Las Rozas
CANC
22:00
Atlético Madrid II
Atlético Madrid II
5/16/2020Primera División RFEF - Group 1Primera División RFEF - Group 1 · Group 1 - 38Estadio Navalcarbón

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Las Rozas37%
×Draw27%
Atlético Madrid II36%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Las Rozas
1.26
Atlético Madrid II
1.23

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 14 home / 13 away

creates per match

Las Rozas
1.29
Atlético Madrid II
1.46

allows per match

Las Rozas
1.00
Atlético Madrid II
1.23

finishing

Las Rozas+0.00on par
Atlético Madrid II+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Under
  • Under55
  • Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Las Rozas ↓

Atlético Madrid II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–110%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
45%55%3.5
24%76%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Las Rozas or draw
64%
Las Rozas or Atlético Madrid II
73%
Draw or Atlético Madrid II
63%

Winning margin

Las Rozas wins by 2+
16%
Atlético Madrid II wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Las Rozas 1+ goals
72%
Las Rozas 2+ goals
36%
Las Rozas 3+ goals
13%
Atlético Madrid II 1+ goals
71%
Atlético Madrid II 2+ goals
35%
Atlético Madrid II 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Las Rozas (draw refunded)
51%
Atlético Madrid II (draw refunded)
49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Las Rozas at home — creates 1.29, concedes 1.00 · 14 matches

Atlético Madrid II away — creates 1.46, concedes 1.23 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Las Rozas attack 1.29 + Atlético Madrid II defence 1.23 → ÷2 → 1.26

Atlético Madrid II attack 1.46 + Las Rozas defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.23

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Las Rozas scores more
37%
level
27%
Atlético Madrid II scores more
36%

Las Rozas at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Las Rozas will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Las Rozas vs Atlético Madrid II — Match Preview

Las Rozas face Atlético Madrid II on May 16, 2020 in this Primera División RFEF - Group 1 fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

Las Rozas host Atlético Madrid II at Estadio Navalcarbón.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.