Las Palmas 2–0 Granada CF: Result & Stats

Las Palmas

FT

2 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Granada CF

Jonathan Viera 82' (pen)

E. Loiodice 44'

9/26/2022

Segunda División · Round 7Estadio de Gran Canaria

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 84+ matches

Las Palmas45%

×Draw28%

Granada CF27%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 582,215 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Las PalmasExpected goals in this matchGranada CF

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.35

0.99

Las Palmas

1.35

Granada CF

0.99

Las Palmas creates 36% more chances

Season form · 128 home / 84 away

1.47

creates per match

1.08

0.89

allows per match

1.24

creates per match

Las Palmas

1.47

Granada CF

1.08

allows per match

Las Palmas

0.89

Granada CF

1.24

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Las Palmas+0.00on par

Granada CF+0.00on par

Total goals

Under59
Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No53
Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Las Palmas ↓

Granada CF →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–110%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

68%32%2.5

41%59%3.5

21%79%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Las Palmas or draw

73%

Las Palmas or Granada CF

72%

Draw or Granada CF

55%

Winning margin

Las Palmas wins by 2+

21%

Granada CF wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Las Palmas 1+ goals

74%

Las Palmas 2+ goals

39%

Las Palmas 3+ goals

15%

Granada CF 1+ goals

63%

Granada CF 2+ goals

26%

Granada CF 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Las Palmas (draw refunded)

62%

Granada CF (draw refunded)

38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

34%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Las Palmas at home — creates 1.47, concedes 0.89 · 128 matches

Granada CF away — creates 1.08, concedes 1.24 · 84 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Las Palmas attack 1.47 + Granada CF defence 1.24 → ÷2 → 1.35

Granada CF attack 1.08 + Las Palmas defence 0.89 → ÷2 → 0.99

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Las Palmas scores more

45%

level

28%

Granada CF scores more

27%

Las Palmas at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Las Palmas will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

21

Jonathan Viera

Las Palmas · M

8.3

Match Events

11'

14'

21'

31'

44'

E. Loiodice↳ Jonathan Viera

46'

Sergio Ruiz← Víctor Meseguer

64'

Fabio González← E. Loiodice

64'

Benito Ramírez← Óscar Clemente

65'

Raúl Fernández← André Ferreira

72'

Jorge Molina← Quini

73'

Bryan Zaragoza← Rochina

74'

Alex Suárez

77'

Álvaro Lemos← Álvaro Jiménez

78'

Sandro Ramírez← Cardona

82'

Jonathan VieraPenalty

88'

Pejiño← Jonathan Viera

90+4'

Sandro Ramírez

90+3'

Pepe Sánchez← E. Cabaco

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

LasGranada

Overview

59%Possession41%

15Total Shots9

4Corners8

11Fouls13

Shots

15Total Shots9

5On Target1

6Off Target5

4Blocked3

9Inside Box5

6Outside Box4

Passing

59%Possession41%

501Total Passes341

422Accurate Passes241

84%Pass Accuracy71%

Goalkeeping

1Saves3

Discipline

11Fouls13

3Yellow Cards3

4Offsides4