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Granada CF vs Las Palmas — Segunda División 2018

Granada CF
Granada CF
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Las Palmas
Las Palmas
Quini 90'
Timor 72'
3/24/2019Segunda DivisiónSegunda División · Round 31Nuevo Los Cármenes

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 84+ matches

Granada CF50%
×Draw27%
Las Palmas23%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 582,215 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Granada CF
1.39
Las Palmas
0.85

Granada CF creates 64% more chances

Season form · 84 home / 128 away

creates per match

Granada CF
1.56
Las Palmas
0.94

allows per match

Granada CF
0.76
Las Palmas
1.22

finishing

Granada CF+0.00on par
Las Palmas+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Under
  • Under61
  • Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

57%No
  • No57
  • Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Granada CF ↓

Las Palmas →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–19%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–113%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–14%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
65%35%2.5
39%61%3.5
19%81%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Granada CF or draw
77%
Granada CF or Las Palmas
73%
Draw or Las Palmas
50%

Winning margin

Granada CF wins by 2+
24%
Las Palmas wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Granada CF 1+ goals
75%
Granada CF 2+ goals
40%
Granada CF 3+ goals
16%
Las Palmas 1+ goals
57%
Las Palmas 2+ goals
21%
Las Palmas 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Granada CF (draw refunded)
68%
Las Palmas (draw refunded)
32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
30%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Granada CF at home — creates 1.56, concedes 0.76 · 84 matches

Las Palmas away — creates 0.94, concedes 1.22 · 128 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Granada CF attack 1.56 + Las Palmas defence 1.22 → ÷2 → 1.39

Las Palmas attack 0.94 + Granada CF defence 0.76 → ÷2 → 0.85

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Granada CF scores more
50%
level
27%
Las Palmas scores more
23%

Granada CF at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Granada CF will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

12
TimorLas PalmasLas Palmas · M
7.8

Match Events

5'
Eric Curbelo
42'
Iñigo Ruiz De Galarreta
47'
Ángel Montoro
50'
Rodri
57'
David Timor
61'
Alberto← Montoro
62'
A. Ramos← Rodri
63'
Maikel Mesa
72'
Timor↳ Rubén Castro
76'
Antonio Puertas← Dani Ojeda
80'
Dani Castellano← Maikel Mesa
81'
German Sanchez
82'
Momo← Ruiz de Galarreta
87'
Adrian Ramos
90'
Alberto de la Bella
90+2'
Javi Castellano← S. Srnić
90'
Quini

Possession

48%Granada

Shots

14Granada

Pass accuracy

49%Granada

Statistics

GranadaLas
Overview
48%Possession52%
14Total Shots9
6Corners1
15Fouls22
Shots
14Total Shots9
5On Target3
6Off Target5
3Blocked1
5Inside Box5
9Outside Box4
Passing
48%Possession52%
348Total Passes369
250Accurate Passes272
72%Pass Accuracy74%
Goalkeeping
2Saves4
Discipline
15Fouls22
4Yellow Cards5
4Offsides4

Match Recap: Granada CF vs Las Palmas

Granada CF and Las Palmas drew 1-1 in Segunda División on March 24, 2019.

Goals: Timor (72'), Quini (90').

Las Palmas controlled possession (52%) and registered 9 shots to 14.

The match was played at Nuevo Los Cármenes in Granada.