Las Palmas 1–1 Elche: Result & Stats

Las Palmas

FT

1 – 1

HT: 1 – 1

Elche

Rubén Castro 30'

Juan Cruz 39'

6/27/2020

Segunda División · Round 36Estadio de Gran Canaria

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 86+ matches

Las Palmas46%

×Draw27%

Elche27%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Las PalmasExpected goals in this matchElche

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.38

0.98

Las Palmas

1.38

Elche

0.98

Las Palmas creates 41% more chances

Season form · 128 home / 86 away

1.47

creates per match

1.07

0.89

allows per match

1.28

creates per match

Las Palmas

1.47

Elche

1.07

allows per match

Las Palmas

0.89

Elche

1.28

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Las Palmas+0.00on par

Elche+0.00on par

Total goals

Under58
Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No53
Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Las Palmas ↓

Elche →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–19%

0–25%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

68%32%2.5

42%58%3.5

21%79%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Las Palmas or draw

73%

Las Palmas or Elche

73%

Draw or Elche

54%

Winning margin

Las Palmas wins by 2+

22%

Elche wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Las Palmas 1+ goals

75%

Las Palmas 2+ goals

40%

Las Palmas 3+ goals

16%

Elche 1+ goals

62%

Elche 2+ goals

26%

Elche 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Las Palmas (draw refunded)

63%

Elche (draw refunded)

37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

34%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Las Palmas at home — creates 1.47, concedes 0.89 · 128 matches

Elche away — creates 1.07, concedes 1.28 · 86 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Las Palmas attack 1.47 + Elche defence 1.28 → ÷2 → 1.38

Elche attack 1.07 + Las Palmas defence 0.89 → ÷2 → 0.98

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Las Palmas scores more

46%

level

27%

Elche scores more

27%

Las Palmas at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Las Palmas will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

18

Javi Castellano

Las Palmas · M

7.9

Match Events

30'

Rubén Castro↳ Ruiz de Galarreta

31'

G. Verdu

35'

B. Ramirez

39'

Juan Cruz↳ Fidel

54'

F. Fidel

61'

Aridai Cabrera← Benito Ramírez

63'

Jonathas← Nino

63'

Pere Milla← Fidel

71'

D. Calvo

77'

F. Varela← Ruiz de Galarreta

77'

Jony Carmona← Dani Escriche

77'

Ramón Folch← Manuel Sánchez

88'

C. Mendes

88'

Claudio← J. Narváez

88'

Cristian López← Rubén Castro

90+1'

Pedri

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

LasElche

Overview

47%Possession53%

17Total Shots6

6Corners2

13Fouls11

Shots

17Total Shots6

8On Target2

7Off Target3

2Blocked1

10Inside Box3

7Outside Box3

Passing

47%Possession53%

429Total Passes475

350Accurate Passes398

82%Pass Accuracy84%

Goalkeeping

1Saves7

Discipline

13Fouls11

3Yellow Cards3

2Offsides1