Elche 2–3 Las Palmas: Result & Stats

Elche

FT

2 – 3

HT: 2 – 0

Las Palmas

Josán Fernández 34'

Fidel 24' (pen)

J. Narváez 73'

Juan Cruz 66' (OG)

Benito Ramírez 62'

12/15/2019

Segunda División · Round 20Estadio Manuel Martínez Valero

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 85+ matches

Elche46%

×Draw29%

Las Palmas25%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

ElcheExpected goals in this matchLas Palmas

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.27

0.85

Elche

1.27

Las Palmas

0.85

Elche creates 49% more chances

Season form · 85 home / 127 away

1.31

creates per match

0.94

0.76

allows per match

1.23

creates per match

Elche

1.31

Las Palmas

0.94

allows per match

Elche

0.76

Las Palmas

1.23

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Elche+0.00on par

Las Palmas+0.00on par

Total goals

Under64
Over36

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No59
Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Elche ↓

Las Palmas →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–012%

0–110%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–015%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–18%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–13%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

88%12%1.5

63%37%2.5

36%64%3.5

16%84%4.5

6%94%

Double chance

Elche or draw

75%

Elche or Las Palmas

71%

Draw or Las Palmas

54%

Winning margin

Elche wins by 2+

21%

Las Palmas wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Elche 1+ goals

72%

Elche 2+ goals

36%

Elche 3+ goals

14%

Las Palmas 1+ goals

57%

Las Palmas 2+ goals

21%

Las Palmas 3+ goals

5%

Draw no bet

Elche (draw refunded)

65%

Las Palmas (draw refunded)

35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

28%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Elche at home — creates 1.31, concedes 0.76 · 85 matches

Las Palmas away — creates 0.94, concedes 1.23 · 127 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Elche attack 1.31 + Las Palmas defence 1.23 → ÷2 → 1.27

Las Palmas attack 0.94 + Elche defence 0.76 → ÷2 → 0.85

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Elche scores more

46%

level

29%

Las Palmas scores more

25%

Elche at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Elche will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

12

J. Narváez

Las Palmas · F

8.1

Match Events

22'

Martín Mantovani

24'

FidelPenalty

34'

Josán Fernández↳ Ramón Folch

46'

S. Srnić← Éric Curbelo

59'

Manuel Sanchez

62'

Benito Ramírez↳ Jonathan Viera

65'

Andoni López← Fidel

66'

Juan CruzOwn goal

69'

Pere Milla← Manuel Sánchez

72'

Juan Cruz

73'

J. Narváez↳ S. Srnić

82'

Ramon Folch

83'

S. Araújo← J. Narváez

84'

M. Daoudi← Josán Fernández

89'

Deivid← Pedri

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

ElcheLas

Overview

30%Possession70%

6Total Shots19

3Corners4

18Fouls14

Shots

6Total Shots19

5On Target10

1Off Target5

0Blocked4

3Inside Box9

3Outside Box10

Passing

30%Possession70%

243Total Passes559

159Accurate Passes477

65%Pass Accuracy85%

Goalkeeping

8Saves4

Discipline

18Fouls14

3Yellow Cards1

4Offsides1