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Elche vs Las Palmas — Segunda División 2018

Elche
Elche
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Las Palmas
Las Palmas
11/10/2018Segunda DivisiónSegunda División · Round 13Estadio Manuel Martínez Valero

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 85+ matches

Elche46%
×Draw29%
Las Palmas25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Elche
1.27
Las Palmas
0.85

Elche creates 49% more chances

Season form · 85 home / 127 away

creates per match

Elche
1.31
Las Palmas
0.94

allows per match

Elche
0.76
Las Palmas
1.23

finishing

Elche+0.00on par
Las Palmas+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Under
  • Under64
  • Over36

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

59%No
  • No59
  • Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Elche ↓

Las Palmas →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–110%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
63%37%2.5
36%64%3.5
16%84%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Elche or draw
75%
Elche or Las Palmas
71%
Draw or Las Palmas
54%

Winning margin

Elche wins by 2+
21%
Las Palmas wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Elche 1+ goals
72%
Elche 2+ goals
36%
Elche 3+ goals
14%
Las Palmas 1+ goals
57%
Las Palmas 2+ goals
21%
Las Palmas 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Elche (draw refunded)
65%
Las Palmas (draw refunded)
35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
28%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Elche at home — creates 1.31, concedes 0.76 · 85 matches

Las Palmas away — creates 0.94, concedes 1.23 · 127 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Elche attack 1.31 + Las Palmas defence 1.23 → ÷2 → 1.27

Las Palmas attack 0.94 + Elche defence 0.76 → ÷2 → 0.85

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Elche scores more
46%
level
29%
Las Palmas scores more
25%

Elche at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Elche will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

1
Raúl FernándezLas PalmasLas Palmas · G
8.6

Match Events

16'
Gonzalo Verdú
30'
Manuel Sanchez
36'
Neyder Lozano
38'
Deivid
55'
A. González← Josán Fernández
62'
Rubén Castro← Rafa Mir
73'
Javi Flores
77'
Nino← Javi Flores
80'
D. Blum← Tana
82'
Benja← S. Kaba
84'
Fidel← Maikel Mesa
87'
Tekio

Possession

47%Elche

Shots

15Elche

Pass accuracy

49%Elche

Statistics

ElcheLas
Overview
47%Possession53%
15Total Shots11
7Corners1
21Fouls15
Shots
15Total Shots11
6On Target1
6Off Target6
3Blocked4
11Inside Box5
4Outside Box6
Passing
47%Possession53%
317Total Passes376
213Accurate Passes268
67%Pass Accuracy71%
Goalkeeping
1Saves6
Discipline
21Fouls15
5Yellow Cards1
0Red Cards0
4Offsides3

Segunda División: Elche 0–0 Las Palmas

Elche and Las Palmas drew 0-0 in Segunda División on November 10, 2018.

Las Palmas controlled possession (53%) and registered 11 shots to 15.

The match was played at Estadio Manuel Martínez Valero in Elche.