Landskrona BoIS 3–1 Gefle IF: Result & Stats

Landskrona BoIS

FT

3 – 1

HT: 1 – 1

Gefle IF

V. Sundberg 84', 65'

C. Streete 29'

L. Englund 22'

3/2/2025

Svenska Cupen · Group Stage - 3Landskrona IP E-plan

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

Landskrona BoIS43%

×Draw25%

Gefle IF32%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Landskrona BoISExpected goals in this matchGefle IF

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.54

1.28

Landskrona BoIS

1.54

Gefle IF

1.28

Landskrona BoIS creates 20% more chances

Season form · 8 home / 7 away

1.38

creates per match

0.57

2.00

allows per match

1.71

creates per match

Landskrona BoIS

1.38

Gefle IF

0.57

allows per match

Landskrona BoIS

2.00

Gefle IF

1.71

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Landskrona BoIS+0.00on par

Gefle IF+0.00on par

Total goals

Over53
Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes57
No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Landskrona BoIS ↓

Gefle IF →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–18%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–112%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

77%23%2.5

53%47%3.5

31%69%4.5

15%85%

Double chance

Landskrona BoIS or draw

68%

Landskrona BoIS or Gefle IF

75%

Draw or Gefle IF

57%

Winning margin

Landskrona BoIS wins by 2+

22%

Gefle IF wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

Landskrona BoIS 1+ goals

79%

Landskrona BoIS 2+ goals

45%

Landskrona BoIS 3+ goals

20%

Gefle IF 1+ goals

72%

Gefle IF 2+ goals

37%

Gefle IF 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Landskrona BoIS (draw refunded)

58%

Gefle IF (draw refunded)

42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

45%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Landskrona BoIS at home — creates 1.38, concedes 2.00 · 8 matches

Gefle IF away — creates 0.57, concedes 1.71 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Landskrona BoIS attack 1.38 + Gefle IF defence 1.71 → ÷2 → 1.54

Gefle IF attack 0.57 + Landskrona BoIS defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.28

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Landskrona BoIS scores more

43%

level

25%

Gefle IF scores more

32%

Landskrona BoIS at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Landskrona BoIS will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

17'

18'

22'

29'

35'

37'

37'

39'

G. Westström← E. Sylisufaj

40'

L. Beronius← A. During

60'

A. Nezirevic

62'

X. Odhiambo← C. Streete

63'

M. Mohamed← C. Capotondi

63'

V. Sundberg← K. Jensen

65'

V. Sundberg

71'

L. Beronius

73'

E. Hiekkanen← M. Mokédé

78'

A. Egnell← M. Björkqvist

84'

V. Sundberg

Landskrona

Gefle

▼

⚽

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

⚽

▼

Streete

Manager: M. Mölder

39'▲G. Westström←▼E. Sylisufaj

62'▲X. Odhiambo←▼C. Streete

63'▲M. Mohamed←▼C. Capotondi

63'▲V. Sundberg←▼K. Jensen

78'▲A. Egnell←▼M. Björkqvist

Landskrona BoIS substitutes

WestströmOdhiamboMohamedSundbergEgnellSmajićStarkHildeman

Manager: Rawez Lawan

40'▲L. Beronius←▼A. During

73'▲E. Hiekkanen←▼M. Mokédé

Gefle IF substitutes

BeroniusHiekkanenLättmanLundÄdelHedvall