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Gefle IF vs Landskrona BoIS — Superettan 2026

Gefle IF
Gefle IF
FT
3 – 3
HT: 1 – 1
Landskrona BoIS
Landskrona BoIS
J. Hjelte 90+8'
A. Lundin 86'
S. Friman 45'
O. Diawara 66'
A. Egnell 52'
R. Dzabic 18'
10/28/2023SuperettanSuperettan · Round 28Gavlevallen

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 46+ matches

Gefle IF39%
×Draw24%
Landskrona BoIS36%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Gefle IF
1.53
Landskrona BoIS
1.46

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 46 home / 98 away

creates per match

Gefle IF
1.43
Landskrona BoIS
1.16

allows per match

Gefle IF
1.76
Landskrona BoIS
1.64

finishing

Gefle IF+0.00on par
Landskrona BoIS+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Over
  • Over57
  • Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

60%Yes
  • Yes60
  • No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Gefle IF ↓

Landskrona BoIS →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–17%
0–25%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–111%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
57%43%3.5
35%65%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

Gefle IF or draw
64%
Gefle IF or Landskrona BoIS
76%
Draw or Landskrona BoIS
61%

Winning margin

Gefle IF wins by 2+
19%
Landskrona BoIS wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

Gefle IF 1+ goals
78%
Gefle IF 2+ goals
45%
Gefle IF 3+ goals
20%
Landskrona BoIS 1+ goals
77%
Landskrona BoIS 2+ goals
43%
Landskrona BoIS 3+ goals
18%

Draw no bet

Gefle IF (draw refunded)
52%
Landskrona BoIS (draw refunded)
48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
49%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Gefle IF at home — creates 1.43, concedes 1.76 · 46 matches

Landskrona BoIS away — creates 1.16, concedes 1.64 · 98 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Gefle IF attack 1.43 + Landskrona BoIS defence 1.64 → ÷2 → 1.53

Landskrona BoIS attack 1.16 + Gefle IF defence 1.76 → ÷2 → 1.46

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Gefle IF scores more
39%
level
24%
Landskrona BoIS scores more
36%

Gefle IF at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Gefle IF will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

18'
R. Dzabic
45'
S. Friman
51'
Nils Eriksson
52'
A. Egnell
54'
David Edvardsson
62'
O. Diawara← E. Lindman
62'
J. Strid← F. Ihler
66'
O. Diawara
74'
A. Lundin← A. Bonnah
74'
J. Hjelte← S. Friman
74'
A. Edqvist← C. Capotondi
85'
S. Hegdal← K. Asare
86'
A. Lundin
90+5'
G. Bruzelius← D. Edvardsson
90+5'
M. Nilsson← A. Egnell
90+8'
J. Hjelte

Possession

54%Gefle

Shots

17Gefle

Statistics

GefleLandskrona
Overview
54%Possession46%
17Total Shots9
8Corners3
19Fouls14
Shots
17Total Shots9
9On Target3
5Off Target3
3Blocked3
Passing
54%Possession46%
Discipline
19Fouls14
1Yellow Cards1
0Red Cards0

Match Recap: Gefle IF vs Landskrona BoIS

Gefle IF and Landskrona BoIS drew 3-3 in Superettan on October 28, 2023.

Goals: R. Dzabic (18'), S. Friman (45'), A. Egnell (52'), O. Diawara (66'), A. Lundin (86'), J. Hjelte (90+8').

Gefle IF controlled possession (54%) and registered 17 shots to 9.

The match was played at Gavlevallen in Gävle.