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Landskrona BoIS vs Gefle IF — Superettan 2026

Landskrona BoIS
Landskrona BoIS
FT
1 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Gefle IF
Gefle IF
M. Widell 45+1'
4/29/2023SuperettanSuperettan · Round 5Landskrona Idrottsplats

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 45+ matches

Landskrona BoIS52%
×Draw24%
Gefle IF24%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Landskrona BoIS
1.67
Gefle IF
1.04

Landskrona BoIS creates 61% more chances

Season form · 98 home / 45 away

creates per match

Landskrona BoIS
1.55
Gefle IF
0.87

allows per match

Landskrona BoIS
1.21
Gefle IF
1.78

finishing

Landskrona BoIS+0.00on par
Gefle IF+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Over
  • Over51
  • Under49

Close call

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Landskrona BoIS ↓

Gefle IF →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–17%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
51%49%3.5
29%71%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Landskrona BoIS or draw
76%
Landskrona BoIS or Gefle IF
76%
Draw or Gefle IF
48%

Winning margin

Landskrona BoIS wins by 2+
28%
Gefle IF wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Landskrona BoIS 1+ goals
81%
Landskrona BoIS 2+ goals
50%
Landskrona BoIS 3+ goals
23%
Gefle IF 1+ goals
65%
Gefle IF 2+ goals
28%
Gefle IF 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Landskrona BoIS (draw refunded)
69%
Gefle IF (draw refunded)
31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
41%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Landskrona BoIS at home — creates 1.55, concedes 1.21 · 98 matches

Gefle IF away — creates 0.87, concedes 1.78 · 45 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Landskrona BoIS attack 1.55 + Gefle IF defence 1.78 → ÷2 → 1.67

Gefle IF attack 0.87 + Landskrona BoIS defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 1.04

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Landskrona BoIS scores more
52%
level
24%
Gefle IF scores more
24%

Landskrona BoIS at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Landskrona BoIS will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

39'
Melker Jonsson
44'
Camil Jebara
45+1'
M. Widell
46'
D. Eliasson← S. Friman
46'
Iu Ranera← O. Karlsson
57'
Oscar Lundin
60'
J. Strid← E. Hedenquist
67'
Melker Widell
72'
C. Capotondi← A. Yakoub
77'
Kevin Persson
85'
M. Nilsson← K. Asare
90+4'
L. Sunesson← O. Diawara

Possession

60%Landskrona

Shots

19Landskrona

Statistics

LandskronaGefle
Overview
60%Possession40%
19Total Shots2
8Corners1
15Fouls22
Shots
19Total Shots2
3On Target1
11Off Target1
Passing
60%Possession40%
Goalkeeping
1Saves2
Discipline
15Fouls22
3Yellow Cards2
0Red Cards0
1Offsides1

Superettan: Landskrona BoIS 1–0 Gefle IF

Landskrona BoIS beat Gefle IF 1-0 in Superettan on April 29, 2023.

Goals: M. Widell (45+1').

Landskrona BoIS controlled possession (60%) and registered 19 shots to 2.

The match was played at Landskrona Idrottsplats in Landskrona.