Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Landskrona BoIS vs Gais — Superettan 2018

Landskrona BoIS
Landskrona BoIS
FT
2 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Gais
Gais
9/11/2021SuperettanSuperettan · Round 20Landskrona Idrottsplats

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 76+ matches

Landskrona BoIS42%
×Draw26%
Gais32%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Landskrona BoIS
1.41
Gais
1.21

Landskrona BoIS creates 17% more chances

Season form · 98 home / 76 away

creates per match

Landskrona BoIS
1.55
Gais
1.21

allows per match

Landskrona BoIS
1.21
Gais
1.26

finishing

Landskrona BoIS+0.00on par
Gais+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Under
  • Under51
  • Over49

Close call

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Landskrona BoIS ↓

Gais →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–112%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
49%51%3.5
27%73%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Landskrona BoIS or draw
68%
Landskrona BoIS or Gais
74%
Draw or Gais
58%

Winning margin

Landskrona BoIS wins by 2+
20%
Gais wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Landskrona BoIS 1+ goals
76%
Landskrona BoIS 2+ goals
41%
Landskrona BoIS 3+ goals
17%
Gais 1+ goals
70%
Gais 2+ goals
34%
Gais 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Landskrona BoIS (draw refunded)
56%
Gais (draw refunded)
44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
41%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Landskrona BoIS at home — creates 1.55, concedes 1.21 · 98 matches

Gais away — creates 1.21, concedes 1.26 · 76 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Landskrona BoIS attack 1.55 + Gais defence 1.26 → ÷2 → 1.41

Gais attack 1.21 + Landskrona BoIS defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 1.21

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Landskrona BoIS scores more
42%
level
26%
Gais scores more
32%

Landskrona BoIS at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Landskrona BoIS will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Landskrona BoIS vs Gais

Landskrona BoIS beat Gais 2-1 in Superettan on September 11, 2021.

The match was played at Landskrona Idrottsplats in Landskrona.