Gais 2–0 Landskrona BoIS: Result & Stats

Gais

FT

2 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Landskrona BoIS

4/22/2023

Superettan · Round 4Gamla Ullevi

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 76+ matches

Gais43%

×Draw26%

Landskrona BoIS31%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

GaisExpected goals in this matchLandskrona BoIS

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.44

1.19

Gais

1.44

Landskrona BoIS

1.19

Gais creates 21% more chances

Season form · 76 home / 98 away

1.25

creates per match

1.16

1.21

allows per match

1.64

creates per match

Gais

1.25

Landskrona BoIS

1.16

allows per match

Gais

1.21

Landskrona BoIS

1.64

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Gais+0.00on par

Landskrona BoIS+0.00on par

Total goals

Under51
Over49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes53
No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Gais ↓

Landskrona BoIS →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–19%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–112%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

74%26%2.5

49%51%3.5

27%73%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

Gais or draw

69%

Gais or Landskrona BoIS

74%

Draw or Landskrona BoIS

57%

Winning margin

Gais wins by 2+

21%

Landskrona BoIS wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Gais 1+ goals

76%

Gais 2+ goals

42%

Gais 3+ goals

18%

Landskrona BoIS 1+ goals

70%

Landskrona BoIS 2+ goals

33%

Landskrona BoIS 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Gais (draw refunded)

58%

Landskrona BoIS (draw refunded)

42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

41%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Gais at home — creates 1.25, concedes 1.21 · 76 matches

Landskrona BoIS away — creates 1.16, concedes 1.64 · 98 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Gais attack 1.25 + Landskrona BoIS defence 1.64 → ÷2 → 1.44

Landskrona BoIS attack 1.16 + Gais defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 1.19

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Gais scores more

43%

level

26%

Landskrona BoIS scores more

31%

Gais at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Gais will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff