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Gais vs Landskrona BoIS — Svenska Cupen 2019

Gais
Gais
FT
3 – 0
HT: 3 – 0
Landskrona BoIS
Landskrona BoIS
2/23/2026Svenska CupenSvenska Cupen · Group Stage - 1

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 11+ matches

Gais56%
×Draw22%
Landskrona BoIS23%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Gais
2.02
Landskrona BoIS
1.21

Gais creates 67% more chances

Season form · 11 home / 16 away

creates per match

Gais
2.36
Landskrona BoIS
1.50

allows per match

Gais
0.91
Landskrona BoIS
1.69

finishing

Gais+0.00on par
Landskrona BoIS+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Over
  • Over62
  • Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

61%Yes
  • Yes61
  • No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Gais ↓

Landskrona BoIS →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–15%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–08%
1–110%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–17%
3–24%
3–32%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
62%38%3.5
40%60%4.5
22%78%

Double chance

Gais or draw
77%
Gais or Landskrona BoIS
78%
Draw or Landskrona BoIS
44%

Winning margin

Gais wins by 2+
33%
Landskrona BoIS wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Gais 1+ goals
87%
Gais 2+ goals
60%
Gais 3+ goals
33%
Landskrona BoIS 1+ goals
70%
Landskrona BoIS 2+ goals
34%
Landskrona BoIS 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Gais (draw refunded)
71%
Landskrona BoIS (draw refunded)
29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
51%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Gais at home — creates 2.36, concedes 0.91 · 11 matches

Landskrona BoIS away — creates 1.50, concedes 1.69 · 16 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Gais attack 2.36 + Landskrona BoIS defence 1.69 → ÷2 → 2.02

Landskrona BoIS attack 1.50 + Gais defence 0.91 → ÷2 → 1.21

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

Gais scores more
56%
level
22%
Landskrona BoIS scores more
23%

Gais at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Gais will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Gais vs Landskrona BoIS

Gais beat Landskrona BoIS 3-0 in Svenska Cupen on February 23, 2026.