Lagun Onak 0–1 Barakaldo: Result & Stats

Lagun Onak

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Barakaldo

Jon Urkiza 16'

9/24/2022

Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 · Group 4 - 3Estadio Garmendipe

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 34+ matches

Lagun Onak30%

×Draw27%

Barakaldo43%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Lagun OnakExpected goals in this matchBarakaldo

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.08

1.35

Lagun Onak

1.08

Barakaldo

1.35

Barakaldo creates 25% more chances

Season form · 115 home / 34 away

1.35

creates per match

1.74

0.97

allows per match

0.82

creates per match

Lagun Onak

1.35

Barakaldo

1.74

allows per match

Lagun Onak

0.97

Barakaldo

0.82

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Lagun Onak+0.00on par

Barakaldo+0.00on par

Total goals

Under56
Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No51
Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Lagun Onak ↓

Barakaldo →

0–09%

0–112%

0–28%

0–34%

0–41%

1–010%

1–113%

1–29%

1–34%

1–41%

2–05%

2–17%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3–02%

3–12%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4–00%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

70%30%2.5

44%56%3.5

23%77%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Lagun Onak or draw

57%

Lagun Onak or Barakaldo

73%

Draw or Barakaldo

70%

Winning margin

Lagun Onak wins by 2+

12%

Barakaldo wins by 2+

20%

Team goals

Lagun Onak 1+ goals

66%

Lagun Onak 2+ goals

29%

Lagun Onak 3+ goals

10%

Barakaldo 1+ goals

74%

Barakaldo 2+ goals

39%

Barakaldo 3+ goals

15%

Draw no bet

Lagun Onak (draw refunded)

41%

Barakaldo (draw refunded)

59%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

36%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Lagun Onak at home — creates 1.35, concedes 0.97 · 115 matches

Barakaldo away — creates 1.74, concedes 0.82 · 34 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Lagun Onak attack 1.35 + Barakaldo defence 0.82 → ÷2 → 1.08

Barakaldo attack 1.74 + Lagun Onak defence 0.97 → ÷2 → 1.35

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 43%?"

Lagun Onak scores more

30%

level

27%

Barakaldo scores more

43%

Barakaldo at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Barakaldo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

16'

Jon Urkiza

64'

Unai Arieta← Urki Txoperena

64'

Ariztimuño← Jon Urkiza

70'

Ander Bengoechea← Manex Iradi

72'

Endika Bujan← Iker Pedernales

72'

Cortezón← Íñigo Orozco

80'

Jakes Aranbarri← Gereta

80'

Julen Guillo← Pablo del Pozo

86'

Zubillaga← Gorka Amuchastegui

86'

Jon Galarraga← Josu Ibarbia

Lagun

Barakaldo

⚽

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

Manager: Ander Avellaneda

70'▲Ander Bengoechea←▼Manex Iradi

80'▲Jakes Aranbarri←▼Gereta

80'▲Julen Guillo←▼Pablo del Pozo

86'▲Zubillaga←▼Gorka Amuchastegui

86'▲Jon Galarraga←▼Josu Ibarbia

Lagun Onak substitutes

BengoecheaAranbarriGuilloZubillagaGalarraga

Manager: Imanol de la Sota

64'▲Unai Arieta←▼Urki Txoperena

64'▲Ariztimuño←▼Jon Urkiza

72'▲Endika Bujan←▼Iker Pedernales

72'▲Cortezón←▼Íñigo Orozco

Barakaldo substitutes

ArietaAriztimuñoBujanCortezón

Match Recap: Lagun Onak vs Barakaldo

Barakaldo beat Lagun Onak 1-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 on September 24, 2022.

Goals: Jon Urkiza (16').

The match was played at Estadio Garmendipe in Azpeitia.

Lagun Onak vs Barakaldo — Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Match Recap: Lagun Onak vs Barakaldo