Lagun Onak 2–3 Barakaldo: Result & Stats

Lagun Onak

2 – 3

HT: 1 – 1

Barakaldo

Gereta 79', 26' (pen)

Unai Ayo 83'

David Nates 70'

Borja Álvarez 35'

9/18/2021

Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 · Group 4 - 4Estadio Garmendipe

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 34+ matches

Lagun Onak30%

×Draw27%

Barakaldo43%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Lagun OnakExpected goals in this matchBarakaldo

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.08

1.35

Lagun Onak

1.08

Barakaldo

1.35

Barakaldo creates 25% more chances

Season form · 115 home / 34 away

1.35

creates per match

1.74

0.97

allows per match

0.82

creates per match

Lagun Onak

1.35

Barakaldo

1.74

allows per match

Lagun Onak

0.97

Barakaldo

0.82

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Lagun Onak+0.00on par

Barakaldo+0.00on par

Total goals

Under56
Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No51
Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Lagun Onak ↓

Barakaldo →

0–09%

0–112%

0–28%

0–34%

0–41%

1–010%

1–113%

1–29%

1–34%

1–41%

2–05%

2–17%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3–02%

3–12%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4–00%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

70%30%2.5

44%56%3.5

23%77%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Lagun Onak or draw

57%

Lagun Onak or Barakaldo

73%

Draw or Barakaldo

70%

Winning margin

Lagun Onak wins by 2+

12%

Barakaldo wins by 2+

20%

Team goals

Lagun Onak 1+ goals

66%

Lagun Onak 2+ goals

29%

Lagun Onak 3+ goals

10%

Barakaldo 1+ goals

74%

Barakaldo 2+ goals

39%

Barakaldo 3+ goals

15%

Draw no bet

Lagun Onak (draw refunded)

41%

Barakaldo (draw refunded)

59%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

36%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Lagun Onak at home — creates 1.35, concedes 0.97 · 115 matches

Barakaldo away — creates 1.74, concedes 0.82 · 34 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Lagun Onak attack 1.35 + Barakaldo defence 0.82 → ÷2 → 1.08

Barakaldo attack 1.74 + Lagun Onak defence 0.97 → ÷2 → 1.35

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 43%?"

Lagun Onak scores more

30%

level

27%

Barakaldo scores more

43%

Barakaldo at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Barakaldo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

26'

GeretaPenalty

35'

Borja Álvarez

46'

Iván Castillo← Denis Larrañaga

70'

David Nates

73'

Beñat Uranga← Iker Olaizola

73'

Ekhi Gonzalez← Manex Iradi

77'

Imanol Galarreta← Vellisca

77'

Xabi Mayordomo← David Nates

77'

Ekaitz Fernández← Borja Álvarez

79'

Gereta

81'

Unai Ayo← Mikel Juaristi

81'

Mikel Castrillejo← Guille Ruiz

82'

Donazar← Gereta

83'

Unai Ayo

Lagun

Barakaldo

▼

▼

▼

⚽

▼

Álvarez

⚽

▼

▼

▼

▼

⚽2

▼

Gereta

Manager: Ander Avellaneda

46'▲Iván Castillo←▼Denis Larrañaga

73'▲Beñat Uranga←▼Iker Olaizola

73'▲Ekhi Gonzalez←▼Manex Iradi

82'▲Donazar←▼Gereta

Lagun Onak substitutes

CastilloUrangaGonzalezDonazar

Manager: Nando Alonso

77'▲Imanol Galarreta←▼Vellisca

77'▲Xabi Mayordomo←▼David Nates

77'▲Ekaitz Fernández←▼Borja Álvarez

81'▲Unai Ayo←▼Mikel Juaristi

81'▲Mikel Castrillejo←▼Guille Ruiz

Barakaldo substitutes

GalarretaMayordomoFernándezAyoCastrillejo

Tercera División RFEF - Group 4: Lagun Onak 2–3 Barakaldo

Barakaldo beat Lagun Onak 3-2 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 on September 18, 2021.

Goals: Gereta (26' pen, 79'), Borja Álvarez (35'), David Nates (70'), Unai Ayo (83').

The match was played at Estadio Garmendipe in Azpeitia.

Lagun Onak vs Barakaldo — Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Tercera División RFEF - Group 4: Lagun Onak 2–3 Barakaldo