Barakaldo 2–0 Lagun Onak: Result & Stats

Barakaldo

2 – 0

HT: 2 – 0

Lagun Onak

Íñigo Orozco 26', 6'

1/29/2023

Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 · Group 4 - 18Estadio Nuevo Lasesarre

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 34+ matches

Barakaldo56%

×Draw24%

Lagun Onak20%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

BarakaldoExpected goals in this matchLagun Onak

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.72

0.91

Barakaldo

1.72

Lagun Onak

0.91

Barakaldo creates 89% more chances

Season form · 34 home / 114 away

2.12

creates per match

0.97

0.85

allows per match

1.32

creates per match

Barakaldo

2.12

Lagun Onak

0.97

allows per match

Barakaldo

0.85

Lagun Onak

1.32

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Barakaldo+0.00on par

Lagun Onak+0.00on par

Total goals

Under51
Over49

Close call

Both teams score

No51
Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Barakaldo ↓

Lagun Onak →

0–07%

0–17%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1–012%

1–111%

1–25%

1–32%

1–40%

2–011%

2–110%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3–06%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4–03%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

74%26%2.5

49%51%3.5

27%73%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

Barakaldo or draw

80%

Barakaldo or Lagun Onak

76%

Draw or Lagun Onak

44%

Winning margin

Barakaldo wins by 2+

31%

Lagun Onak wins by 2+

Team goals

Barakaldo 1+ goals

82%

Barakaldo 2+ goals

51%

Barakaldo 3+ goals

25%

Lagun Onak 1+ goals

60%

Lagun Onak 2+ goals

23%

Lagun Onak 3+ goals

Draw no bet

Barakaldo (draw refunded)

74%

Lagun Onak (draw refunded)

26%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

38%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Barakaldo at home — creates 2.12, concedes 0.85 · 34 matches

Lagun Onak away — creates 0.97, concedes 1.32 · 114 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Barakaldo attack 2.12 + Lagun Onak defence 1.32 → ÷2 → 1.72

Lagun Onak attack 0.97 + Barakaldo defence 0.85 → ÷2 → 0.91

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 56%?"

Barakaldo scores more

56%

level

24%

Lagun Onak scores more

20%

Barakaldo at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Barakaldo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

Íñigo Orozco

26'

Íñigo Orozco

46'

Markel Artetxe← Urki Txoperena

46'

Montes← Jon Urkiza

46'

Jagoba Erdozia← Gereta

58'

Josu Ibarbia← Egoitz Iraola

58'

Jakes Aranbarri← Xabier Alonso

67'

Mikel Castrillejo← Bittor

71'

Cortezón← Íñigo Orozco

74'

Iker Arregui← Ander Bengoechea

81'

Zubillaga← Pablo del Pozo

87'

Endika Bujan← Julen Huidobro

Barakaldo

Lagun

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

⚽2

▼

Orozco

Manager: Imanol de la Sota

46'▲Markel Artetxe←▼Urki Txoperena

46'▲Montes←▼Jon Urkiza

67'▲Mikel Castrillejo←▼Bittor

71'▲Cortezón←▼Íñigo Orozco

87'▲Endika Bujan←▼Julen Huidobro

Barakaldo substitutes

ArtetxeMontesCastrillejoCortezónBujan

Manager: Ander Avellaneda

46'▲Jagoba Erdozia←▼Gereta

58'▲Josu Ibarbia←▼Egoitz Iraola

58'▲Jakes Aranbarri←▼Xabier Alonso

74'▲Iker Arregui←▼Ander Bengoechea

81'▲Zubillaga←▼Pablo del Pozo

Lagun Onak substitutes

ErdoziaIbarbiaAranbarriArreguiZubillaga

Match Recap: Barakaldo vs Lagun Onak

Barakaldo beat Lagun Onak 2-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 on January 29, 2023.

Goals: Íñigo Orozco (6', 26').

The match was played at Estadio Nuevo Lasesarre in Barakaldo.

Barakaldo vs Lagun Onak — Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Match Recap: Barakaldo vs Lagun Onak