La Palma 1–2 Utrera: Result & Stats

La Palma

1 – 2

HT: 0 – 2

Utrera

Manu Calle 51' (pen)

Plusco 40'

Rubén Cruz 6'

11/1/2020

Tercera División RFEF - Group 10 · Group 10 - 3Estadio Municipal

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 48+ matches

La Palma36%

×Draw26%

Utrera37%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

La PalmaExpected goals in this matchUtrera

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.29

1.31

La Palma

1.29

Utrera

1.31

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 48 home / 96 away

1.35

creates per match

1.32

1.29

allows per match

1.23

creates per match

La Palma

1.35

Utrera

1.32

allows per match

La Palma

1.29

Utrera

1.23

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

La Palma+0.00on par

Utrera+0.00on par

Total goals

Under52
Over48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes53
No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

La Palma ↓

Utrera →

0–07%

0–110%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1–010%

1–113%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2–06%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

73%27%2.5

48%52%3.5

26%74%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

La Palma or draw

63%

La Palma or Utrera

74%

Draw or Utrera

64%

Winning margin

La Palma wins by 2+

16%

Utrera wins by 2+

17%

Team goals

La Palma 1+ goals

72%

La Palma 2+ goals

37%

La Palma 3+ goals

14%

Utrera 1+ goals

73%

Utrera 2+ goals

38%

Utrera 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

La Palma (draw refunded)

49%

Utrera (draw refunded)

51%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

40%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

La Palma at home — creates 1.35, concedes 1.29 · 48 matches

Utrera away — creates 1.32, concedes 1.23 · 96 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

La Palma attack 1.35 + Utrera defence 1.23 → ÷2 → 1.29

Utrera attack 1.32 + La Palma defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.31

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 37%?"

La Palma scores more

36%

level

26%

Utrera scores more

37%

Utrera at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Utrera will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

Rubén Cruz

40'

Plusco

46'

Galleti← Mario de Iraola

46'

Manu Calle← Carlitos

46'

José Arias← Alvarito

51'

Manu CallePenalty

66'

Titi Romero← Rubén Cruz

66'

Chema← Fernando López

75'

Diego Pinto← Nené

89'

Alberto Sánchez← Carlos Martínez

Utrera

▼

⚽

▼

⚽

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

Manager: Mario Rodriguez

46'▲Galleti←▼Mario de Iraola

46'▲Manu Calle←▼Carlitos

46'▲José Arias←▼Alvarito

75'▲Diego Pinto←▼Nené

89'▲Alberto Sánchez←▼Carlos Martínez

La Palma substitutes

GalletiCalleAriasPintoSánchez

Manager: Jesús Galván

66'▲Titi Romero←▼Rubén Cruz

66'▲Chema←▼Fernando López

Utrera substitutes

RomeroChema

Tercera División RFEF - Group 10: La Palma 1–2 Utrera

Utrera beat La Palma 2-1 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 10 on November 1, 2020.

Goals: Rubén Cruz (6'), Plusco (40'), Manu Calle (51' pen).

The match was played at Estadio Municipal in La Palma del Condado.

La Palma vs Utrera — Tercera División RFEF - Group 10 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Tercera División RFEF - Group 10: La Palma 1–2 Utrera