KV Mechelen 3–0 Standard Liege: Result & Stats

KV Mechelen

FT

3 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Standard Liege

12/20/2023

Jupiler Pro League · Round 19AFAS Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 18+ matches

KV Mechelen39%

×Draw26%

Standard Liege35%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

KV MechelenExpected goals in this matchStandard Liege

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.42

1.32

KV Mechelen

1.42

Standard Liege

1.32

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 21 home / 18 away

1.35

creates per match

1.05

1.59

allows per match

1.49

creates per match

KV Mechelen

1.35

Standard Liege

1.05

allows per match

KV Mechelen

1.59

Standard Liege

1.49

+0.03on par

finishing

-0.16scores less than expected

finishing

KV Mechelen+0.03on par

Standard Liege-0.16scores less

Total goals

Over52
Under48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes56
No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

KV Mechelen ↓

Standard Liege →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–19%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–112%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

76%24%2.5

52%48%3.5

29%71%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

KV Mechelen or draw

65%

KV Mechelen or Standard Liege

74%

Draw or Standard Liege

61%

Winning margin

KV Mechelen wins by 2+

19%

Standard Liege wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

KV Mechelen 1+ goals

76%

KV Mechelen 2+ goals

41%

KV Mechelen 3+ goals

17%

Standard Liege 1+ goals

73%

Standard Liege 2+ goals

38%

Standard Liege 3+ goals

15%

Draw no bet

KV Mechelen (draw refunded)

53%

Standard Liege (draw refunded)

47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

43%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

KV Mechelen at home — creates 1.35, concedes 1.59 · 21 matches

Standard Liege away — creates 1.05, concedes 1.49 · 18 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

KV Mechelen attack 1.35 + Standard Liege defence 1.49 → ÷2 → 1.42

Standard Liege attack 1.05 + KV Mechelen defence 1.59 → ÷2 → 1.32

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

KV Mechelen scores more

39%

level

26%

Standard Liege scores more

35%

KV Mechelen at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "KV Mechelen will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff