KV Mechelen 3–0 Kortrijk: Result & Stats

KV Mechelen

FT

3 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Kortrijk

10/20/2024

Jupiler Pro League · Round 11AFAS Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

KV Mechelen63%

×Draw20%

Kortrijk17%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

KV MechelenExpected goals in this matchKortrijk

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.14

1.03

KV Mechelen

2.14

Kortrijk

1.03

KV Mechelen creates 108% more chances

Season form · 35 home / 7 away

1.57

creates per match

0.86

1.20

allows per match

2.71

creates per match

KV Mechelen

1.57

Kortrijk

0.86

allows per match

KV Mechelen

1.20

Kortrijk

2.71

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

KV Mechelen+0.00on par

Kortrijk+0.00on par

Total goals

Over61
Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes57
No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

KV Mechelen ↓

Kortrijk →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–14%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–09%

1–19%

1–25%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–07%

3–17%

3–24%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–04%

4–14%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

82%18%2.5

61%39%3.5

39%61%4.5

21%79%

Double chance

KV Mechelen or draw

83%

KV Mechelen or Kortrijk

80%

Draw or Kortrijk

37%

Winning margin

KV Mechelen wins by 2+

39%

Kortrijk wins by 2+

6%

Team goals

KV Mechelen 1+ goals

88%

KV Mechelen 2+ goals

63%

KV Mechelen 3+ goals

36%

Kortrijk 1+ goals

64%

Kortrijk 2+ goals

28%

Kortrijk 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

KV Mechelen (draw refunded)

78%

Kortrijk (draw refunded)

22%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

47%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

KV Mechelen at home — creates 1.57, concedes 1.20 · 35 matches

Kortrijk away — creates 0.86, concedes 2.71 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

KV Mechelen attack 1.57 + Kortrijk defence 2.71 → ÷2 → 2.14

Kortrijk attack 0.86 + KV Mechelen defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.03

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 63%?"

KV Mechelen scores more

63%

level

20%

Kortrijk scores more

17%

KV Mechelen at 63% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 63% does not mean "KV Mechelen will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff