Kortrijk 3–1 KV Mechelen: Result & Stats

Kortrijk

FT

3 – 1

HT: 2 – 0

KV Mechelen

Nacho Ferri 90', 45+3'

D. De Neve 25'

B. Raman 90+6'

11/29/2024

Jupiler Pro League · Round 16Guldensporenstadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 5+ matches

Kortrijk37%

×Draw25%

KV Mechelen37%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

KortrijkExpected goals in this matchKV Mechelen

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.38

1.39

Kortrijk

1.38

KV Mechelen

1.39

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 5 home / 19 away

0.85

creates per match

1.02

1.75

allows per match

1.90

creates per match

Kortrijk

0.85

KV Mechelen

1.02

allows per match

Kortrijk

1.75

KV Mechelen

1.90

+0.15scores more than expected

finishing

+0.45scores more than expected

finishing

Kortrijk+0.15scores more

KV Mechelen+0.45scores more

Total goals

Over52
Under48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes56
No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kortrijk ↓

KV Mechelen →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–19%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–112%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–18%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

76%24%2.5

52%48%3.5

30%70%4.5

15%85%

Double chance

Kortrijk or draw

63%

Kortrijk or KV Mechelen

75%

Draw or KV Mechelen

63%

Winning margin

Kortrijk wins by 2+

17%

KV Mechelen wins by 2+

17%

Team goals

Kortrijk 1+ goals

75%

Kortrijk 2+ goals

40%

Kortrijk 3+ goals

16%

KV Mechelen 1+ goals

75%

KV Mechelen 2+ goals

40%

KV Mechelen 3+ goals

16%

Draw no bet

Kortrijk (draw refunded)

50%

KV Mechelen (draw refunded)

50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

44%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kortrijk at home — creates 0.85, concedes 1.75 · 5 matches

KV Mechelen away — creates 1.02, concedes 1.90 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kortrijk attack 0.85 + KV Mechelen defence 1.90 → ÷2 → 1.38

KV Mechelen attack 1.02 + Kortrijk defence 1.75 → ÷2 → 1.39

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Kortrijk scores more

37%

level

25%

KV Mechelen scores more

37%

Kortrijk at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Kortrijk will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

19

Nacho Ferri

Kortrijk · F

8.5

Match Events

15'

Aziz Ouattara MohammedGoal cancelled

25'

D. De Neve

45+3'

Nacho Ferri

46'

R. Belghali← P. Pflücke

46'

G. Hairemans← N. Storm

51'

Bram Lagae

62'

B. Raman← A. Ouattara

67'

A. Sissako← B. Dejaegere

70'

P. Dahl← José Marsà

76'

Benito Raman

77'

M. El Idrissy← B. Messaoudi

77'

B. Bafdili← L. Lauberbach

81'

Daam Foulon

90+1'

Tomoki Takamine

90+2'

M. Bruno← T. Takamine

90'

Nacho Ferri↳ A. Sissako

90+6'

B. Raman

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

KortrijkKV

Overview

32%Possession68%

11Total Shots8

1.67Expected Goals (xG)0.58

5Corners3

14Fouls10

Shots

11Total Shots8

5On Target3

2Off Target4

4Blocked1

6Inside Box6

5Outside Box2

Passing

32%Possession68%

291Total Passes623

208Accurate Passes527

71%Pass Accuracy85%

Goalkeeping

2Saves3

0.27Goals Prevented0.27

Discipline

14Fouls10

2Yellow Cards2

0Offsides3