Kortrijk 0–3 KV Mechelen: Result & Stats

Kortrijk

FT

0 – 3

HT: 0 – 2

KV Mechelen

K. Mrabti 79'

R. Schoofs 16'

N. Bassette 6'

11/26/2023

Jupiler Pro League · Round 15Guldensporenstadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Kortrijk29%

×Draw22%

KV Mechelen49%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

KortrijkExpected goals in this matchKV Mechelen

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.49

2.00

Kortrijk

1.49

KV Mechelen

2.00

KV Mechelen creates 34% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 31 away

1.17

creates per match

1.32

2.67

allows per match

1.81

creates per match

Kortrijk

1.17

KV Mechelen

1.32

allows per match

Kortrijk

2.67

KV Mechelen

1.81

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Kortrijk+0.00on par

KV Mechelen+0.00on par

Total goals

Over68
Under32

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes67
No33

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kortrijk ↓

KV Mechelen →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–16%

0–26%

0–34%

0–42%

1

1–05%

1–19%

1–29%

1–36%

1–43%

2

2–03%

2–17%

2–27%

2–35%

2–42%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

86%14%2.5

68%32%3.5

46%54%4.5

27%73%

Double chance

Kortrijk or draw

51%

Kortrijk or KV Mechelen

78%

Draw or KV Mechelen

71%

Winning margin

Kortrijk wins by 2+

13%

KV Mechelen wins by 2+

28%

Team goals

Kortrijk 1+ goals

77%

Kortrijk 2+ goals

44%

Kortrijk 3+ goals

19%

KV Mechelen 1+ goals

86%

KV Mechelen 2+ goals

59%

KV Mechelen 3+ goals

32%

Draw no bet

Kortrijk (draw refunded)

37%

KV Mechelen (draw refunded)

63%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

58%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kortrijk at home — creates 1.17, concedes 2.67 · 6 matches

KV Mechelen away — creates 1.32, concedes 1.81 · 31 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kortrijk attack 1.17 + KV Mechelen defence 1.81 → ÷2 → 1.49

KV Mechelen attack 1.32 + Kortrijk defence 2.67 → ÷2 → 2.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Kortrijk scores more

29%

level

22%

KV Mechelen scores more

49%

KV Mechelen at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "KV Mechelen will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

16

R. Schoofs

KV Mechelen · M

9.2

Match Events

6'

N. Bassette↳ R. Schoofs

10'

Daam Foulon

16'

R. Schoofs

46'

D. Mbayo← R. Alebiosu

46'

F. Avenatti← I. Davies

54'

Mory Konate

67'

J. Van Hecke← J. Vanlerberghe

68'

Y. Malede← N. Bassette

76'

A. Mighten← M. Bruno

76'

N. Mehssatou← M. Mampassi

79'

K. Mrabti↳ Y. Malede

80'

B. Bafdili← K. Mrabti

80'

P. Pflücke← G. Hairemans

89'

Sheyi Ojo

90+3'

Alex Mighten

90+2'

N. Mukau← M. Konaté

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

KortrijkKV

Overview

64%Possession36%

15Total Shots10

0.83Expected Goals (xG)1.25

4Corners3

12Fouls12

Shots

15Total Shots10

3On Target5

10Off Target3

2Blocked2

10Inside Box5

5Outside Box5

Passing

64%Possession36%

574Total Passes324

493Accurate Passes230

86%Pass Accuracy71%

Goalkeeping

2Saves3

Discipline

12Fouls12

2Yellow Cards2

0Offsides3