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KV Mechelen vs Dender — Jupiler Pro League 2025

KV Mechelen
KV Mechelen
FT
5 – 2
HT: 4 – 0
Dender
Dender
L. Lauberbach 56', 14'
R. Schoofs 42', 21'
N. Storm 10'
M. Berte 90'
B. Nsimba 59'
4/4/2025Jupiler Pro LeagueJupiler Pro League · Conference League Play-off Group - 2AFAS Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 16+ matches

KV Mechelen43%
×Draw24%
Dender33%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

KV Mechelen
1.63
Dender
1.40

KV Mechelen creates 16% more chances

Season form · 16 home / 20 away

creates per match

KV Mechelen
1.32
Dender
1.09

allows per match

KV Mechelen
1.70
Dender
1.93

finishing

KV Mechelen-0.07on par
Dender-0.19scores less

Total goals

58%Over
  • Over58
  • Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

61%Yes
  • Yes61
  • No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

KV Mechelen ↓

Dender →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–17%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–111%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
58%42%3.5
36%64%4.5
19%81%

Double chance

KV Mechelen or draw
67%
KV Mechelen or Dender
76%
Draw or Dender
57%

Winning margin

KV Mechelen wins by 2+
22%
Dender wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

KV Mechelen 1+ goals
80%
KV Mechelen 2+ goals
48%
KV Mechelen 3+ goals
22%
Dender 1+ goals
75%
Dender 2+ goals
41%
Dender 3+ goals
17%

Draw no bet

KV Mechelen (draw refunded)
57%
Dender (draw refunded)
43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
49%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

KV Mechelen at home — creates 1.32, concedes 1.70 · 16 matches

Dender away — creates 1.09, concedes 1.93 · 20 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

KV Mechelen attack 1.32 + Dender defence 1.93 → ÷2 → 1.63

Dender attack 1.09 + KV Mechelen defence 1.70 → ÷2 → 1.40

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

KV Mechelen scores more
43%
level
24%
Dender scores more
33%

KV Mechelen at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "KV Mechelen will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

20
L. LauberbachKV MechelenKV Mechelen · F
9.0

Match Events

10'
N. Storm↳ P. Pflücke
14'
L. Lauberbach↳ José Marsà
21'
R. Schoofs
42'
R. Schoofs
46'
M. Konaté← A. Touba
46'
L. Hens← B. Goncalves
46'
M. Berte← A. Scheidler
46'
D. Hrnčár← F. Ferraro
53'
Patrick PflückePenalty cancelled
56'
L. Lauberbach↳ R. Belghali
59'
B. Nsimba↳ D. Hrnčár
69'
K. Mrabti← G. Hairemans
70'
B. Antonio← R. Belghali
70'
K. Van Rafelghem← N. Storm
73'
J. Attah Kadiri← B. Nsimba
73'
R. M'Barki← M. Viltard
77'
Noah Mbamba
85'
B. Bafdili← L. Lauberbach
90'
M. Berte

Possession

52%KV

Shots

20KV

Pass accuracy

50%KV

Statistics

KVDender
Overview
52%Possession48%
20Total Shots9
4.04Expected Goals (xG)0.75
4Corners1
5Fouls8
Shots
20Total Shots9
10On Target4
6Off Target3
4Blocked2
17Inside Box4
3Outside Box5
Passing
52%Possession48%
528Total Passes487
454Accurate Passes417
86%Pass Accuracy86%
Goalkeeping
2Saves5
-0.65Goals Prevented-0.65
Discipline
5Fouls8
0Yellow Cards1
4Offsides0

Match Recap: KV Mechelen vs Dender

KV Mechelen beat Dender 5-2 in Jupiler Pro League on April 4, 2025.

Goals: N. Storm (10'), L. Lauberbach (14', 56'), R. Schoofs (21', 42'), B. Nsimba (59'), M. Berte (90').

KV Mechelen controlled possession (52%) and registered 20 shots to 9.

The match was played at AFAS Stadion in Malines.