KV Mechelen 2–1 Dender: Result & Stats

KV Mechelen

FT

2 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Dender

3/16/2025

Jupiler Pro League · Round 30AFAS Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 16+ matches

KV Mechelen42%

×Draw24%

Dender34%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

KV MechelenExpected goals in this matchDender

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.62

1.42

KV Mechelen

1.62

Dender

1.42

KV Mechelen creates 14% more chances

Season form · 16 home / 21 away

1.32

creates per match

1.15

1.70

allows per match

1.92

creates per match

KV Mechelen

1.32

Dender

1.15

allows per match

KV Mechelen

1.70

Dender

1.92

-0.07on par

finishing

-0.10scores less than expected

finishing

KV Mechelen-0.07on par

Dender-0.10scores less

Total goals

Over58
Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes61
No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

KV Mechelen ↓

Dender →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–17%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–111%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–15%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

81%19%2.5

58%42%3.5

36%64%4.5

19%81%

Double chance

KV Mechelen or draw

66%

KV Mechelen or Dender

76%

Draw or Dender

58%

Winning margin

KV Mechelen wins by 2+

21%

Dender wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

KV Mechelen 1+ goals

80%

KV Mechelen 2+ goals

48%

KV Mechelen 3+ goals

22%

Dender 1+ goals

76%

Dender 2+ goals

41%

Dender 3+ goals

17%

Draw no bet

KV Mechelen (draw refunded)

56%

Dender (draw refunded)

44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

50%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

KV Mechelen at home — creates 1.32, concedes 1.70 · 16 matches

Dender away — creates 1.15, concedes 1.92 · 21 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

KV Mechelen attack 1.32 + Dender defence 1.92 → ÷2 → 1.62

Dender attack 1.15 + KV Mechelen defence 1.70 → ÷2 → 1.42

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

KV Mechelen scores more

42%

level

24%

Dender scores more

34%

KV Mechelen at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "KV Mechelen will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff